EUR/USD The Euro eases on Friday but is on track for the first bullish weekly close in six weeks that adds to positive signals as Doji reversal pattern is forming on weekly chart. On the other side, fresh bulls face difficulties at pivotal Fibo barrier at 1.1069 (38.2% of 1.1494/1.0806), although Thursday’s action registered a close above this level, as there is a threat of formation of a bull-trap on weekly chart if the price fails to end week above this level. Daily studies showed a slight improvement, but remain overall negative, as bearish momentum starting to strengthen after a brief easing, which keeps the downside vulnerable. The risk is also seen on a drop and close below psychological 1.10 level (also near 38.2% retracement of 1.0806/1.1137 recovery). Fundamentals also do not work in favor of the single currency, as Fed raised interest rates and signaled increased pace of further hikes, diverging from the ECB, which still keeps rates at zero, while growing pessimism over the situation in Ukraine, continues to dampen risk appetite. Pivotal levels at the downside lay at 1.10 and 1.0973 (10DMA) while 1.1069 (Fibo) and 1.1079 (20DMA) mark upper triggers. Res: 1.1069; 1.1079; 1.1137; 1.1150. Sup: 1.1000; 1.0973; 1.0950; 1.0900. Interested in EUR/USD technicals? Check out the key levels

Europe European and US stocks have continued to recover more of their lost ground this week, despite there being little prospect of a ceasefire, or imminent cessation of hostilities between Russia and Ukraine. As we head into the weekend, we have retreated from the highs of the week on rising scepticism that Russia’s interest in a negotiated agreement is in any way serious, although the FTSE100 is proving to be slightly more resilient. There are also rising concerns about President Putin’s state of mind, after a speech where he lashed out at “scum” and “traitors”. Talk of a ceasefire continues to come across as premature at a time when the rhetoric from Russia is anything but conciliatory and would also require a major climbdown from one side or the other. With their respective positions still being miles apart, and Russia still targeting civilians, an imminent de-escalation doesn’t look likely at this point, hence today’s modest pullback. The energy sector has led today’s modest pullback, with the decline in oil prices from this month’s highs, prompting some profit taking on the likes of BP and Shell.   On the plus side Ocado shares have bounced back after sliding sharply yesterday in response to concerns over rising costs, when it updated its guidance for the rest of the year. We’ve also seen similar rebounds in the likes of B&Q owner Kingfisher, who report their full year numbers next week, as well as B&M European Retail. Pub chain JD Wetherspoon today reported H1 revenues of £807.4m, a decline of 13.5% from 2020, with like-for like sales falling 11.8%. In January, CEO Tim Martin confirmed that the pub chain would be incurring an H1 loss due to the Plan B Covid restrictions implemented by the government just before Christmas. This loss before tax was confirmed at -£21.3m, although CEO Tim Martin did express confidence that H2 would be much better once all restrictions are removed and the weather warms up. On the downside rising costs are expected to be a headwind, although the pub chain said it was confident that increases in prices were likely to be below the levels of inflation.    Ted Baker shares have jumped sharply after it was confirmed that it was in talks with US private equity firm Sycamore, who are considering making a cash offer for the business. The company has until 15th April to firm up its interest, or pull back for 6 months. At its most recent trading update Ted Baker indicated that progress was being made in turning around a business riven by scandal and stock accounting errors. The Q4 trading update showed that group sales rose 35%, compared to a year ago, and up from the 18% rise in Q3. Margins were also better, rising 350bps across all channels. Inventory levels also improved, while sales in stores and retail were showing signs of recovery, as volumes start to head back to pre-Covid levels. Whether the talks lead anywhere remains to be seen, but the Ted Baker brand remains a solid one despite all the recent problems, and while the shares are cheap at just above 100p, it would be a shame if all the hard work of the current management team resulted in the company being bought up on the cheap. Let’s not forget that in 2018 the shares were at £30 with a market cap of £1.3bn. US US markets opened lower, taking their cues from today’s weaker European session, although we are still on course for a positive week. GameStop latest Q4 numbers followed in the footsteps of Q3 with the company posting a bigger than expected loss, sending the shares sharply lower. While revenues beat expectations at $2.25bn, Q4 saw the company post a huge loss of $1.86c a share, against an expectation of a profit of $0.84c a share. The losses appeared to be driven by higher-than-expected costs due to the hiring of extra staff as it looks to launch an NFT Marketplace by the end of Q2 2022. Investors appear sceptical that this type of move will reap significant rewards at a time when its core market shows little sign of picking up.   The last couple of quarters have seen the outlook for FedEx chop and change, with a profits downgrade in Q1, followed by a profits upgrade in Q2. Yesterday’s Q3 numbers have seen the company change tack again and have served to highlight the impact of rising costs on its overall performance. Higher wages as well as rising energy costs, saw the company miss on profits, although revenues did beat expectations coming in at $23.6bn. Disruptions caused by the Omicron variant caused staff shortages, and although some of this disruption and higher costs has been offset by higher prices, the rises haven’t completely offset the hit to profitability. The company did keep full year guidance unchanged, but it is becoming...

St. Patrick’s Day is historically considered among the best trading days. Apparently, judging by the results, it may have brought some luck to natural gas. The second target hit – BOOM! Yesterday, on St. Patrick's Day, the opportunity to bank the extra profits from my recent Nat-Gas trade projections (provided on March 2) finally arrived. That trade plan has provided traders with multiple bounces to trade the NYMEX Natural Gas Futures (April contract) in various ways, always depending on each one’s personal risk profile. To get some more explanatory details on understanding the different trading ways this fly map (trading plan) could offer, I invite you to read my previous article (from March 11). To quickly sum it up, the various trade opportunities that could be played were as follows (with the following captures taken on March 11): The first possibility is swing trading, with the trailing stop method explained in my famous risk management article. Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGJ22) Futures (April contract, hourly chart) The second option consisted of scalping the rebounds with fixed targets (active or experienced traders). I named this method “riding the tails” (or the shadows). Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGJ22) Futures (April contract, 4H chart) The third way is position trading – a more passive trading style (and usually more rewarding). Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGJ22) Futures (April contract, daily chart) The chart below shows a good overall view of NYMEX Natural Gas hitting our final target, $4.860: Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGJ22) Futures (April contract, daily chart) Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGJ22) Futures (April contract, 4H chart) As you can see, the market has provided us with multiple entries into the same support zone (highlighted by the yellow band) – even after hitting the first target, you may have noticed that I maintained the entry conditions in place – after the suggestion to drag the stop up just below the new swing low ($4.450). The market, still in a bull run, got very close to that point on March 15 by making a new swing low at $4.459 (just about 10 ticks above it). Before that, it firmly rebounded once more (allowing a new/additional entry) and then extended its gains further away while consecutively hitting target 1 ($4.745) again. After that, it finally hit target 2 ($4.860)!

WTI oil WTI oil returned above $100, after dipping to $93.51 earlier this week and is likely to close above this level that would generate initial positive signal, in addition formation of reversal pattern on daily chart. Although recovery picked up, it still needs more work at the upside to generate firmer reversal signal, with lift and close above pivot at 107.63 (Fibo 38.2% of $130.48/$93.51) needed to confirm. Daily studies are mixed, with rising negative momentum that keeps the downside vulnerable. The contract is also on track for the second weekly close in red, although, long tail of weekly candle suggests that bears from new peak at $130.48 are running out of steam, but weekly studies show momentum and stochastic indicators heading south, with enough space at the downside signaling that correction might not be over. Fundamentals remain the main driver, with rising tensions over Ukraine that directly fuel fears of possible supply disruption, while OPEC output is still short around 1 million bpd that would add to potential nightmare scenario in case Russian supplies stop. Res: 106.23; 107.63; 110.00; 112.00. Sup: 102.23; 100.00; 99.30; 94.83. Interested in WTI technicals? Check out the key levels

S&P 500 extended gains, and the risk appetite in bonds carried over into value rising faster than tech. Given the TLT downswing though, it‘s all but rainbows and unicorns ahead today. Not only that quad witching would bring high volume and chop, VIX itself doesn‘t look to slide smoothly below 25 today. Friday‘s ride would be thus rocky, and affected by momentum stalling in both tech and value. Real assets though can and will enjoy the deserved return into the spotlight. With much of the preceding downswing being based on deescalation hopes (that aren‘t materializing, still), the unfolding upswing in copper, oil and precious metals (no, they aren‘t to be spooked by the tough Fed tightening talk) would happen at a more measured pace than had been the case recently. Pay attention to the biting inflation, surrounding blame games hinting at no genuine respite – read through the rich captions of today‘s chart analyses, and think about reliable stores of real value. And of course, enjoy the open profits. Let‘s move right into the charts. S&P 500 and Nasdaq outlook S&P 500 looks likely to consolidate as the 4,400 – 4,450 zone would be tough to overcome, and such a position relative to both the moving averages shown, has historically stopped quite a few steep recoveries off very negative sentiment readings. Credit markets HYG is likely to slow down here, as in really stall and face headwinds. The run had been respectable, and much of the easy gains happened already yesterday. Gold, silver and miners Precious metals upswing did indeed return – and the miners performance doesn‘t hint at a swift return of the bears, to put it mildly. The path to $1950s is open. Crude oil Crude oil bottom was indeed in, and the price can keep recovering towards $110s and beyond. No, the economy isn‘t crashing yet, monetary policy isn‘t forcing that outcome, and the drawing of petroleum reserves is a telltale sign of upside price pressures mounting. It‘ll be an interesting April, mark my words. Copper Copper is duly rebounding, and not at all overheated. The move is also in line with other base metals. My yesterday‘s target of $4.70 has already been reached – I‘m looking for a measured pace of gains to continue. Bitcoin and Ethereum Cryptos are taking a small break, highlighting the perils of today. The boat won‘t be rocked too much. Summary S&P 500 bulls made the easy gains already yesterday, and today‘s session is going to be volatile, even treacherous in establishing a clear and lasting direction (i.e. choppy), and the headwinds would be out there in the plain open. These would come from bonds not continuing in the risk-on turn convincingly rather than commodities and metals surging head over heels. Both tech and value would feel the heat as VIX would show signs of waking up (to some degree). Today‘s session won‘t change the big picture dynamics of late, and I invite you to read more in-depth commentary within the individual market sections of today‘s full analysis.

Summary Existing home sales fell 7.2% in February to a 6.02 million-unit pace. While it is tempting to blame rising mortgage rates for February's larger-than-expected drop, the decline continues a recent pattern with annualized sales bouncing around from month-to-month. Mortgage rates have been rising since last fall, and concern about rising interest rates picked up after the FOMC signaled it would accelerate plans to normalize interest rates and begin to reverse the expansion of the Fed's balance sheet. Those concerns likely caused some buyers to accelerate their timetable for purchasing a home, which is a point we raised with January's surprisingly strong rise in home sales, so sales were poised for a drop. Pending home sales, which reflect purchase contracts for existing homes, fell sharply in November, December and January, dropping 2.9%, 2.3% and 5.7%, respectively. Unusually lean inventories are also likely restraining sales. While the inventory of homes available for sale rose 2.4% in February, they are down 15.5% over the past year and remain near an all-time low. With inventories low, homes are selling unusually quickly and often have multiple bids above their asking price. The median price of an existing home has risen 15% over the past year to $357,300. Prices are up the most in the South, which has seen a huge influx of buyers from the Northeast and West Coast, many of which have sold homes at higher prices and bring considerable purchasing power to the region. The share of homes sold in the South priced between $500,000 and $1 million have surged by more than 40% over the past year, which is well ahead of any other region. Download the full article