U.S. stocks are experiencing a decline, influenced by indications that interest rates may have reached a bottom, at least temporarily, triggering a subtle reversal of the positive momentum seen in November when both equities and bonds made significant gains. Last month's bond rally and the tidal wave of dovish rates wagers may be indicative of a momentous shift in the market's thinking; the move higher in 10-year US Treasury yields we are seeing today might just be marking a local bottom (at least for now) as investors assess positioning into December. But frankly, market positioning can't get any more dovish without concrete evidence to suggest that the US economy is on the verge of an equally epochal downdraft. In an ideal world, rates would decline, inflation would return to target levels, corporate profitability would double, and prior interest rate hikes would have no adverse effects on demand or balance sheets. And as incredulous as that sounds, since Chris Waller's game-changing remarks late last month, the market's collective faith in a best-case 2024 conjuncture may have gotten too far over its skis on rate cuts mania. While the growth outlook has moderated in recent weeks from the 5%+ pace we saw in 3Q23, the economy does not appear to be heading for the cliff edge in 2024, which -- despite progress on inflation -- might not compel the Fed to cut as aggressively as current market pricing might suggest. We are not arguing that the prospects of slowing growth may require some Fed stimulus support via a few rate cuts. Indeed, the narrative since the summer of 2021 has predominantly centred on the Fed's inflation mandate; recent indicators suggesting that inflation is coming under control have prompted a shift in market attention back to the Fed's growth mandate. To be sure, unemployment in the US remains very low and 3Q GDP growth was robust. But trends can change. Price action in the S&P 500 suggests rates-driven pressure on Tech and a bit of risk aversion under the surface as investor focus this week remains on macro releases as we get the November Payrolls report Friday -- a key data point to assess if growth is holding up and whether rate cut mania is justified. While downward adjustment in the 2024 dot seems necessary, there is a tightrope walk here. Officials will unlikely desire a scenario where the market pushes the rate cut expectations even further. It is evident that the market has and will quickly embed a heavy dose of rate cut expectation if economic data continues to cool, thinking Jerome Powell will swiftly respond with rate cuts to prevent the deceleration from evolving into a recession. One of the issues we discussed last month was the market liquidity amid the FED QT heading into December. The recent sharp increase in the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) has caught the attention of market participants, especially those attuned to funding dynamics and liquidity trends. The noteworthy 6 basis points jump in SOFR observed in Friday's fix has raised eyebrows, especially considering it occurred after the month's end. Such movements in interest rates, particularly in short-term funding rates like SOFR, can indicate liquidity conditions and funding availability shifts. A higher SOFR print may suggest tightening liquidity, making it more expensive for institutions to borrow in the overnight markets. For those in tune with financial markets, this movement in SOFR could be viewed as evidence supporting the idea that the liquidity tide is receding or that conditions for obtaining funding are becoming less favourable. If this trend continues, one could expect more dialling for the dollar, a colloquial term used on trading desks to call other banks for direct offers on the US dollar.

Gold price is making another to recapture the $2,050 psychological barrier. Fed rate cut bets keep weighing on the US Dollar and US Treasury bond yields ahead of jobs data. Gold price's daily technical setup continues to favor buyers, with eyes again on $2,100 Gold price is attempting a bounce toward $2,050 early Tuesday, following a massive $120 pullback from fresh record highs of $2,144 set in Monday's Asian trading. Gold price is finding support from a renewed weakness in the US Dollar alongside the US Treasury bond yields, as the focus shifts toward the high-impact US JOLTS Job Openings data and ISM Services PMI due later on Tuesday.    Gold price retains the bullish potential Monday's sharp retracement in Gold price came as no surprise after the relentless upsurge. Investors resorted to recaliberating the US Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut expectations, as well as, some profit-taking heading into a slew of critical US employment data, starting from Tuesday. US Job Openings data, due at 1530 GMT, is forecast to show 9.35M, having shown signs of a slowdown in the job market in September. Further slack in the US employment sector is likely to affirm the March Fed rate cut expectations, accelerating the decline in the US Dollar and the US Treasury bond yields. Markets continue pricing about 60% chance of the Fed cutting interest rates in March. In the meantime, markets look forward to the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) policy announcement, with the central bank expected to hold the interest rate at 4.35% in the December meeting. A dovish tone in the RBA's communication on the path forward is likely to remain supportive of the Gold price. Gold traders also cheer strong China's Caixin General Services PMI reading, which came in at 51.5 in November as against a 50.8 print expected and the previous figure of 50.4. Improving business momentum in China, the world's top Gold consumer, is likely to bode well for Gold price. Meanwhile, Gold price will also pay close attention to the Middle East geopolitical developments for fresh trading incentives. Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart As observed on the daily chart, Gold price keeps its bullish bias intact, as the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator has retraced from within the overbought territory to hold above the midline. This suggests that there is a scope for a fresh upswing in Gold price. The Golden Cross, as represented by the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 200-day SMA bullish crossover, also adds credence for further upside. A daily closing above the $2,100 level is needed to initiate a sustained uptrend toward the all-time high of $2,144. Ahead of that, Gold buyers need to find acceptance above the $2,050 psychological barrier. On the other side, if the corrective decline resumes, The next strong support is seen at the $2,000 threshold, below which the 21-day SMA at $1,994 could come to the rescue of Gold buyers.   Further down, the $1,990 round figure will be challenged.

AUD/USD Current Price: 0.6606 The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to leave interest rates unchanged. The sharp reversal of the US Dollar leaves AUD/USD vulnerable in the short term. Price is testing an upward trendline near 0.6600. The AUD/USD reached its highest level in four months at 0.6689 and then sharply reversed, falling towards 0.6600. The decline occurred without a clear catalyst and followed a reversal in Gold and Silver and a stronger US Dollar. The focus is now on the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meeting, followed by key US data. The RBA is expected to leave its key interest rate unchanged at 4.35% after the November rate hike. Data since the last meeting has been mixed, with a strong labor market and slower inflation. The latest report warrants some caution from the RBA, that is unlikely to bring a dovish surprise, particularly after Governor Michele Bullock's comments last week regarding stronger-than-anticipated inflation pressures. The outcome of the RBA meeting is not expected to significantly impact the Australian Dollar, as there are not many changes anticipated in the statement compared to the previous meeting. The central bank will likely need more data, such as Q4 inflation, to reassess its monetary policy stance. Australia will report Q3 GDP on Wednesday, followed by trade data on Thursday. The US Dollar started the week under pressure, extending the negative momentum from Friday, but on Monday staged a recovery that appears to be a reversal. Economic data, particularly concerning the labor market, could fuel the Dollar's momentum or push it back towards monthly lows. Data due from the US on Tuesday includes the JOLTS report and the ISM Services PMI. Economic data will mostly revolve around the labor market, but it is unlikely to change expectations that the Federal Reserve is done raising interest rates, and forecasts suggest a more balanced labor market.   AUD/USD short-term technical outlook The retreat from near 0.6700 keeps the price within a wide range, between the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.6580 and 0.6680. The bias is up on the daily chart, and the price holds well above key SMAs. However, the indicators point to potential weakness ahead, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) moving south and the Momentum approaching the midlines. On the 4-hour chart, AUD/USD remains within an upward channel, finding support around 0.6600. A break below 0.6595 should trigger further weakness. Technical indicators are biased to the downside, including MACD, RSI below 50, and Momentum below midlines. A recovery above 0.6630 (20-SMA) ahead of the Asian session would alleviate the bearish pressure. The key resistance stands at 0.6660. Support levels: 0.6600 0.6570 0.6530 Resistance levels: 0.6635 0.6660 0.6690 View Live Chart for the AUD/USD 

XAU/USD Current price: $2,025 The sharp retreat from record highs warns about the sustainability of one-directional moves. Volatility will likely remain elevated ahead of US data and next week's events. The short-term bias favors the downside while below $2,040. Gold spot recorded a new all-time high near $2,150 at the weekly opening and then experienced a sharp corrective pullback, extending below $2,040. Wild moves could continue throughout this week's key labor market data from the US, as well as market preparations for next week's central bank meetings and the US Consumer Price Index data. On Friday, despite a hawkish tone from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, Gold advanced sharply, and the momentum exploded from the weekly opening. Gold remains supported by hopes, not only that the tightening cycle from the Fed and other central banks is over but also for expectations of interest rate cuts. However, today's pullback could reflect that the odds went too far regarding rate cuts. The Gold market at the moment appears to be on its own, more reflective of a shift in sentiment rather than specific fundamentals. No particular catalyst led to the rally to $2,150, and no specific event pushed the price sharply back to $2,000. US yields rose but only modestly, and the Dollar strengthened on Monday, not explaining the magnitude of the moves. XAU/USD short-term technical outlook Gold price sharply fell, dropping more than a hundred dollars from all-time highs, indicating the possibility of a short-term top. However, considering that volatility is expected to remain elevated, a rally towards new highs should not be ruled out but looks unlikely. The overall trend remains upward, but a decline below $2,010 would clear the path for a deeper correction. On the 4-hour chart, XAU/USD broke below an uptrend line, and technical indicators are biased to the downside. Price found support around the $2,020 area, and a further break lower would expose the $2,005 area. The next target below stands at $1,990. The negative bias will remain in place as long as it stays below $2,040. If gold rises above $2,050, it would negate the negative momentum and could trigger a rebound towards $2,080. Support levels: $2,020 $2,005 $1,985 Resistance levels: $2,050 $2,100 $2,150 View Live Chart for XAU/USD    

EUR/USD trades in a narrow channel below 1.0900 to start the week. The pair could struggle to gather bullish momentum unless risk mood improves. ECB President Lagarde will be delivering a speech later in the day. EUR/USD started the new week under modest bearish pressure and was last seen moving up and down in a narrow band below 1.0900.  Escalating geopolitical tensions cause investors to move away from risk-sensitive assets and help the US Dollar (USD) turn resilient against its rivals early Monday. Growing fears over the Israel-Hamas conflict spreading in the Middle East following Yemen's Houthi rebels' attack on two Israeli ships in the Red Sea force markets to stay cautious.

Pound Sterling stood tall, driving GBP/USD to fresh three-month highs above 1.2700. GBP/USD is set to find dip-demand, as the US employment data take center stage. GBP/USD buyers are likely to find strong support near 1.2450 if the correction extends. The Pound Sterling extended its reigns over the United States Dollar (USD) this week, pushing GBP/USD to the highest level in three months above 1.2700. Traders brace for the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) in the upcoming week, keeping the sentiment around GBP/USD underpinned. Pound Sterling capitalizes on the US Dollar descent Divergent interest rate outlook between the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of England (BoE) helped the Pound Sterling maintain its bullish momentum, as the US Dollar registered its worst month in a year in November. Expectations surrounding a dovish Fed policy pivot in 2024 gained ground throughout the week, underwhelming the US Dollar while the Pound Sterling benefited from the hawkish commentaries from several BoE officials, including Governor Andrew Bailey, following strong UK business PMI data last week. In lieu of this, the GBP/USD pair reached a three-month peak of 1.2733. Markets are pricing in a 97% chance of the Fed standing pat in its December meeting, the CME Group's FedWatch tool showed, with a 48% chance of a rate cut in March next year compared with a 22% chance last week. The Fed rate cut bets rose substantially after Fed Governor Christopher Waller, a known hawk, flagged a policy pivot, spelling doom for the US Dollar and the US Treasury bond yields. "I am increasingly confident that policy is currently well positioned to slow the economy and get inflation back to 2%," Waller said in his speech on Tuesday. If the decline in inflation continues "for several more months ... three months, four months, five months ... we could start lowering the policy rate just because inflation is lower," he added. Chicago Fed President on Tuesday, expressed concerns about keeping rates too high for too long. Meanwhile, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman noted that she was willing to vote for another rate increase should the incoming data support such a case. Adding to more dovishness, New York Fed Bank President John Williams said on Thursday, "In balancing the risks of too-high inflation and a weaker economy, and based on what I know now, my assessment is that we are at, or near, the peak level of the target range of the federal funds rate." Meanwhile, on the economic data front, markets ignored the upward revision to the US Q3 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data, which expanded at a faster pace than previously estimated. The highly anticipated Core PCE Price Index rose at an annual pace of 3.0% in October, moderating from a three-month string of 3.4% readings, remaining above the Fed's 2% target. On a monthly basis, the Core PCE inflation showed no growth in the reported month, missing a forecast of a 0.1% increase while down from the 0.4% print registered in September. On the Pound Sterling side of the story, a few BoE policymakers took up the rostrum during the week, with the central bank's Deputy Governor for Markets and Banking Dave Ramsden noting that "monetary policy is likely to be needed to be restrictive for an extended period of time to get inflation back to 2% target." BoE's hawkish dissenter, Megan Greene, said that "…the policy may have to be restrictive for an extended period of time in order return inflation to 2% over the medium term." BoE Governor Andrew Bailey dismissed rate cut talks, saying that "we are not in a place now where we can discuss cutting interest rates – that is not happening." Bailey added "We will do what it takes to get to 2% inflation target." Finally on Friday, the US published the ISM Manufacturing PMI, which came in worse-than-anticipated, holding at 46.7 in November, vs expectations of 47.6. The US Dollar fell with the news, helping GBP/USD to retain the 1.2600 mark.  Key events to watch out for Pound Sterling traders A fresh week kicks off on a quiet note on Monday, as the mid-tier Factory Orders data from the United States is likely to fill an otherwise uneventful docket on both sides of the Atlantic. Tuesday will feature the Chinese Services PMI data, which will be followed by the final print of the UK and US Services PMIs for November. Of note will be the ISM Services PMI and JOLTS Job Openings data for fresh signs on the US economic resilience and the Fed's interest rate outlook. On Wednesday, the BoE Financial Stability Report (FSR) will be published but it is unlikely to have any impact on the Pound Sterling. Later that day, the US ADP Employment Change data will be published, the precursor to Friday's all-important Nonfarm...