XAU/USD Current price: 2,036.90 Financial markets completed bets on delayed rate cuts, USD demand eased. Federal Reserve speakers stand out in an otherwise quiet week. XAU/USD trimmed part of its latest losses, turned technically neutral. Spot Gold recovers ground on Monday as demand for the US Dollar receded. The XAU/USD pair trades near an intraday high of $2,038.17, recovering some of the ground shed in the last few days. Financial markets are all about delayed rate cuts following central bankers from around the globe pouring cold water on investors' expectations of tighter monetary policies. On Tuesday, it was the turn of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to join the cautious stance, as policymakers decided to leave the door open for additional hikes should conditions require it. Meanwhile, solid US macroeconomic data further undermined the odds of a Federal Reserve (Fed) cut. As a result, government bond yields rallied, backing the US Dollar. By Tuesday, it seems investors have completed repositioning in this new scenario. Bonds recovered, and yields retreated, limiting demand for the USD. Data-wise, the macroeconomic calendar has nothing relevant to offer these days, although multiple Fed speakers will be on the wires. Loretta  Mester, President and Chief Executive Officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, will be on the wires later in the day. XAU/USD short-term technical outlook From a technical point of view, the XAU/USD pair is neutral, according to the daily chart. Technical indicators have turned north, hovering around their midlines, without enough momentum to confirm another leg north. At the same time, the pair seesaws around a flat 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA), currently at around $2,030.40. On a positive note, XAU/USD develops well above its longer moving averages, with the 100 SMA advancing above the 200 SMA, suggesting the risk skews to the upside in the longer term. In the near term, the odds for another leg north seem more limited. XAU/USD recovered above a flat 100 SMA, but it's currently batting a bearish 20 SMA, unable to extend gains beyond the level. Finally, technical indicators are correcting oversold conditions, yet remain within negative levels. Gold could have better chances if the pair advances beyond $2,039.60, the immediate resistance level. Support levels: 2,022.75 2,009.10 1,988.90 Resistance levels: 2,039.60 2,053.10 2.065.60

EUR/USD Current price: 1.0734 The US Dollar pared its rally as the market sentiment marginally improved. European data was mixed but did not impact the Euro, still trading on sentiment. EUR/USD trades near its January low and is poised to break below it. The  EUR/USD pair bottomed for January at 1.0723 on Monday and trades nearby as the new day develops. The US Dollar retains its strength across the FX board, although the momentum eased alongside government bond yields' run. Financial markets are still digesting global rate cut delays, which won't come as soon as expected. Early in Asia, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) announced its monetary policy announcement, leaving rates unchanged as widely anticipated. However, local policymakers joined the cautious train and said additional hikes could not be ruled out. Asian stocks traded mixed, with Chinese indexes backed by governmental intervention. Still, the mood seems to have improved in Europe, as local shares hold on to modest gains, underpinning Wall Street ahead of the opening. Currently, the 10-year Treasury note offers 4.16%, unchanged from Monday's close. On the data front, Germany reported that Factory Orders were up 8.9% MoM in December, beating the market expectations. On the contrary, the Eurozone informed Retail Sales fell 1.1% MoM in the same month, worse than anticipated. The upcoming American session will bring nothing of interest, although a few Federal Reserve (Fed) speakers will be on the wires and may introduce some noise. EUR/USD short-term technical outlook The EUR/USD pair trades near its monthly low, and the daily chart shows there's room for another leg south. The pair develops below all its moving averages, with the 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) maintaining its bearish strength above directionless longer ones. Technical indicators, however, resumed their slides within negative levels, still far from oversold readings. In the near term, and according to the 4-hour chart, the risk also skews to the downside. The Momentum indicator heads firmly lower, well below its 100 level, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator hovers around 33 without directional strength. Finally, moving averages maintain their bearish slopes, with the 20 SMA providing dynamic resistance around 1.0795. Support levels: 1.0695 1.0650 1.0610 Resistance levels: 1.0760 1.0795 1.0840  

EUR/USD recovered above 1.0750 in the early European session on Tuesday. The pair's bearish bias remains intact despite the rebound. Buyers could show interest in case Euro stabilizes above 1.0800. EUR/USD staged a technical correction and rose above 1.0750 early Tuesday after touching its weakest level since mid-November near 1.0720 on Monday. The pair's near-term technical outlook is yet to point to a bullish tilt. The US Dollar (USD) continued to gather strength against its rivals on Monday as the benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield stretched higher on growing expectations about the Federal Reserve (Fed) delaying the policy pivot following the upbeat labor market data. The modest improvement seen in risk sentiment makes it difficult for the USD to outperform its rivals and helps EUR/USD edge higher. Meanwhile, the data from Germany showed that Factory Orders rose 8.9% (seasonally adjusted) on a monthly basis in December and further supported the euro.

The ECB's tightening of monetary policy between the summer of 2022 and September 2023 continued to have its effects on euro zone bank lending in the fourth quarter of 2023. However, in the absence of a further turn of the screw since September 2023, these effects have not intensified further. Outstanding bank loans to the private sector even accelerated slightly, year-on-year, in the fourth quarter (up 0.5% in December 2023 compared to 0.3% in September) in line with GDP (up 0.1% in the fourth quarter from 0.0% in the third). The credit impulse remains negative but increased slightly for the first time since the ECB began to increase rates in July 2022. The 157 banks surveyed by the ECB between 8 December 2023 and 2 January 2024 indicated that they had slightly tightened conditions for loans to businesses. The main reasons cited were risk perceptions related to the economic outlook and the situation of firms. The deceleration in business lending outstanding (+0.33% y/y in December 2023, from +3.8% in December 2022) resulted from the delayed effects of cumulative rate rises since 2022 and a fall in demand. The latter particularly affected long-term loans and investment expenditure. Having hit bottom in October 2023, the credit impulse remained negative in December 2023, at -5.9, but showed a recovery compared to the previous months (August to November 2023), due to a largely technical improvement (favourable basis of comparison from late 2022). It is now above the level seen in 2009, in the aftermath of the financial crisis, and closing in on the levels observed in summer 2021 (-5.6 in August 2021). The banks surveyed indicated that they had also tightened lending conditions for households in the fourth quarter of 2023, to a limited degree for mortgage loans and more significantly for consumer credit. The increase in perceived risk, irrespective of the purpose of the loan, and lower risk tolerance for consumer loans were the main reasons given. Over and above the higher cost of borrowing, weak consumer confidence and the deterioration of real estate market prospects hit demand for credit. In line with the trend that began in the summer of 2022, growth in outstanding loans to households continued to decelerate in the fourth quarter (rising 0.3% y/y in December 2023, from 0.8% in September) whilst the credit impulse for household lending has remained fairly stable since August 2023 (-3.6 in December). The tightening of monetary policy and the heavy brake applied to outstanding loans to the private sector contributed to the sharp deceleration, beginning in the spring of 2021, and then contraction in year-on-year terms between July and December 2023 of M3 money supply. This contraction, the first since 2009, and more particularly the fact that it has been on a scale (-1.3% in August 2023) not seen since the beginning of the ECB's retropolated series (1981), has contributed to the fall in underlying inflation. According to the ECB's preliminary estimate, this measure of money supply more or less stabilised, year-on-year, in January 2024 (+0.1%). Over the same period, core inflation (excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco) continued to fall (+3.3%, from +3.4% in December), as did total inflation (+2.8%, from +2.9%). Download the Full Report!

The Fed, the ECB and other central banks have signalled that market expectations for rate cuts are too aggressive and, together with strong data for not least the US labour market, those expectations have calmed somewhat. Nordic economies are more or less stagnant but not in real decline, and job markets remain rather strong. Swedish inflation is coming down rapidly from its high levels. We are back to seeing a strengthening USD and weakening Nordic currencies, while the atmosphere is constructive among borrowers in the bond market and relating to equities The divergence in economic activity between the US and the euro area continued in the fourth quarter of 2023. The US economy grew 0.8% q/q while economic activity stagnated in the euro area. This brought the 2023 GDP growth rate to 2.5% in the US and to 0.5% in the euro area. One reason for the growth divergence last year was strong private consumption in the US. However, the labour markets are historically strong in both places. The unemployment rate in the euro area remained at 6.4% in December and the US nonfarm employment surprised all expectations in January by increasing 353k plus an upward revision of 126k in December. Moreover, wage growth increased in January and the participation rate declined. Both the ECB and the Fed pushed back against market expectations for large rate cuts this year and especially for the March meetings but otherwise delivered no new policy signals. The market is now pricing a 13% probability of a cut in March for both Fed and ECB compared to 66% and 52%, respectively one month ago. Especially the red-hot US labour market report pared US rate cut bets. The Bank of England shifted towards a more neutral approach to future monetary policy by removing its tightening bias. Inflation surprised slightly to the upside in both the US and the euro area as service inflation is still proving sticky especially in the US. US CPI came in at 3.4% y/y in December while euro area HICP increased 2.8% y/y in January. US core inflation picked up to 3.9% and the current momentum is still on the high side. In the euro area, there were a lot of one-offs affecting the January HICP print from different government measures that ended as well as the fact that companies tend to adjust prices in January. While these factors were visible in core services and energy inflation it was to a smaller extent than feared. Chinese data released this month rung the alarm bell with disappointing retail and housing sales. The housing market is in a bad state and continues to be a drag on activity. Business investments are still strong, and we expect the Chinese economy to muddle through with GDP increasing 4.5% this year as the government will likely increase stimulus. In other Asian countries activity is picking up in manufacturing exports which signals that the global manufacturing cycle is about to turn. This will help both the euro area and US manufacturing that struggled last year. Already, manufacturing PMIs increased significantly in January, although they are still below 50 and hence in contraction. The arrow points to higher levels soon, also supported by the fact that order inventory balances have increased lately, and financial conditions have eased Download the Full Report!

Gold price treads water near $2,025 early Tuesday after hitting a weekly low on Monday. US Dollar, Treasury bond yields take a breather as risk sentiment improves. The tide seems to have turned against Gold buyers, as the daily RSI flips bearish. Gold price is keeping its tepid recovery mode intact near $2,025 in the Asian session on Monday, having hit a weekly of $2,015 on Monday. The US Dollar (USD) is seeing a pullback from multi-month highs alongside the US Treasury bond yields, allowing Gold sellers to take a breather. Fedspeak to steal the spotlight amid a data-light US docket  Strong US Nonfarm Payrolls report combined with the hawkish rhetoric maintained by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell dialed back expectations of aggressive Fed rate cuts this year, propping up the US Dollar and the US Treasury bond yields at the expense of the non-interest-bearing Gold price. Friday's US labor market report showed that the US economy added a whopping 353K jobs in January, against the 180K expected. Fed Chair Jerome Powell, in an interview aired early Monday, dismissed a rate cut next month while pushing back against the timing of the rate cuts. Early Monday, Gold price did receive some support from escalating geopolitical tensions between the West and the Iran-back Houthi rebels but the sentiment around the Fed expectations outweighed in the latter part of the day after the US ISM Services PMI came in stronger at 53.4 in January, as new orders increased and employment rebounded. Gold price succumbed to fading hopes of early and steep interest rate cuts by the Fed, with markets now pricing in 115 basis points (bps) of cuts this year, compared with around 150 bps of reductions anticipated a month ago, per CME Group's FedWatch tool. So far this Tuesday's trading, Gold price is struggling to extend its recovery mode even though the US Dollar retreats with the US Treasury bond yields amid an improvement in risk sentiment. Gold traders remain wary, digesting the latest mixed messages from the Fed policymakers. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari argued on Monday that a possibly higher neutral rate means that the Fed can take more time to before deciding whether to cut. Meanwhile, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said late Friday, he does not take the strong January US job growth as a reason for waiting to cut interest rates. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said, "with economy strong, we feel we can approach rate cut timing question carefully. Confidence is rising, but want more confidence before taking 'very important step' of starting rate cuts." In the absence of top-tier US economic data in the day ahead, Gold traders will closely scrutinize the comments from Fed policymakers for fresh hints on the timing and the pace of Fed rate cuts. Market sentiment will also likely play a pivotal role, with the US earnings season underway and rife Middle East geopolitical tensions. Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart As observed on the daily chart, Gold price closed Monday below the critical support in the $2,030-$2,035 region. That level is the confluence of the 21-day and 50-day Simple Moving Averages (SMA). Further, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator also pierced through the 50 level for the downside. These technical moves suggest that the tide has turned in favor of Gold sellers, reopening floors for a test of the $2,000 threshold if the $2,010 round figure gives way. On the upside, the immediate powerful resistance at the abovementioned confluence support now turned resistance near $2,030. Gold buyers need to find a strong foothold above the latter on a daily candlestick closing basis to initiate a recovery toward the $2,050 psychological level. Recapturing that level is critical to revisit the monthly top of $2,065, which could act as a tough nut to crack for Gold buyers.   

AUD/USD breaks below the 0.6500 support on Monday. The stronger Dollar puts AUD under extra pressure. The RBA is widely expected to keep its OCR unchanged. The beginning of a new trading week saw relentless selling pressure on the Aussie dollar, pushing AUD/USD to the sub-0.6500 zone for the first time since mid-November. Furthermore, the pair declined for the second consecutive session and entered its sixth consecutive week of losses influenced by marked gains in the Greenback as market participants continued to digest Friday's US Nonfarm Payrolls (+353K jobs) and hawkish remarks from Chair Powell over the weekend. Also weighing on Australian currency emerged the lack of positive surprise from the release of the Chinese Services and Composite PMIS tracked by Caixin and published during early trade. In addition, the ongoing downward movement in spot convincingly breached the critical 200-day SMA (0.6573), indicating the potential for the bearish trend to persist, at least in the short term. There was also no reaction in AUD after the China Securities Regulatory Commission restated its commitment on Sunday to encourage the inflow of medium- and long-term funds into the market. Additionally, they pledged to take strong measures against illegal activities, including malicious short selling and insider trading, all amidst another attempt to address the decline in Chinese stocks. Back to the domestic scenario, the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) seems to have the key to lend some near-term support to the Australian Dollar via a hawkish hold at its monetary policy meeting on February 6. However, consensus among investors remains firm and expects the central bank to keep its Official Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged at 4.35%. The latter view is propped up by the latest inflation data from Australia, revealing increased disinflationary pressures at the end of the previous year. Both the Inflation Rate and the RBA's Monthly CPI Indicator rose by significantly less than the initial estimates, at 4.1% in Q4 and 3.4% in December, respectively.      AUD/USD daily chart AUD/USD short-term technical outlook Further losses may cause the AUD/USD to retest its 2024 level of 0.6485 (February 5) ahead of the 2023 bottom of 0.6270 (October 26). The breach of the latter could prompt a test of the round level of 0.6200 to emerge on the horizon prior to the 2022 low of 0.6169 (October 13). On the positive side, there is a temporary resistance at the 55-day SMA of 0.6645. The breakout of this zone may motivate the pair to set sails for the December 2023 high of 0.6871 (December 28), before the July 2023 top of 0.6894 (July 14) and the June 2023 peak of 0.6899 (June 16), all just ahead of the key 0.7000 threshold. The 4-hour chart suggests further weakness in the short-term, opening the door to a drop to 0.6452 sooner rather than later. On the bullish side, 0.6624 is an immediate barrier ahead of the 200-SMA at 0.6671. The trespass of this zone signals a potential advance to 0.6728. The MACD retreats further in the negative zone and the RSI flirts with 35. View Live Chart for the AUD/USD

XAU/USD Current price: 2,023.15 Continued upward pressure in government bond yields underpins the US Dollar. Upbeat United States data further weighed on March rate cut odds. XAU/USD retreated further on broad US Dollar's strength, returned to its comfort zone. XAU/USD is under strong selling pressure on Monday amid broad US Dollar's strength. The Greenback extends the rally triggered last week by the United States (US) Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy decision and upbeat employment figures. On the one hand, Fed Chair Jerome Powell dismissed the odds for a March rate cut, spurring risk aversion. On the other hand, the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report was much stronger than expected, further diminishing the chance of a soon-to-come rate cut. At the beginning of the new week, government bond yields resumed their advances, underpinning the US Dollar in a much quieter week regarding macroeconomic releases. At the time of writing, the 10-year Treasury note offers 4.16%, up roughly 14 basis points (bps), while the 2-year note yields 4.47%, up 10 bps from Friday's close. Meanwhile, stock markets changed course. After spending most of the day in the green, European indexes ended the day in the red. As per Wall Street, the three major indexes trade firmly in the red, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average being the worst performer, down roughly 1%. Finally, the USD got an additional boost from upbeat local data. The ISM Services Producer Manager Index (PMI) jumped to 53.4 in January from a downwardly revised 50.5 in December, above the expected 52. On a negative note, "The Prices Index registered 64 percent in January, a 7.3-percentage point increase from December's seasonally adjusted reading of 56.7 percent," a red flag on inflation, yet supportive of the delay in rate cuts. XAU/USD short-term technical outlook The daily chart for the XAU/USD pair now offers a neutral stance as it returned to the $2,020 price zone. In the mentioned chart, the pair is currently developing below a flat 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA), providing near-term resistance at $2,029.90. XAU/USD holds well above a bullish 100 SMA, limiting the longer-term bearish potential, although the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator heads firmly south at around 47, anticipating another leg lower. In the near term, and according to the 4-hour chart, the risk skews to the downside. Gold develops below all its moving averages, and the 20 SMA accelerated south, although still holding above directionless longer ones. Technical indicators, in the meantime, have bounced from near oversold readings, aiming north within negative levels, not enough to confirm an upcoming recovery. Support levels: 2,022.75 2,009.10 1,988.90 Resistance levels: 2,029.90 2,039.60 2,053.10

EUR/USD Current price: 1.0754 Contraction in business activity and new orders softened in the EU at the beginning of the year. The United States ISM Services PMI is foreseen to improve further in January. EUR/USD bearish case gains momentum as Treasury yields run higher. The EUR/USD pair extends its 2024 slump to fresh lows sub-1.0750 amid broad US Dollar demand. Treasury bond yields lead the way in an otherwise quiet week, and as market participants digest the latest central banks' decisions and the United States (US) employment situation. At the end of the previous week, the USD surged on the back risk aversion, triggered by robust employment figures that followed Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell's words cooling down expectations for a March rate cut. The US Dollar found extra legs on Monday on resurgent yields. Ahead of Wall Street's opening, the 10-year Treasury note offered as much as 4.10%, holding nearby, while the 2-year note peaked at 4.46%, now offering 4.44%. Meanwhile, stock markets trade with a positive tone, with most Asian and European indexes holding on to modest gains. Data-wise, the Hamburg Commercial Bank (HCOB) published the final Services Producer Manager Index (PMI) surveys for the Eurozone, with most figures suffering upward revisions but still indicating contraction in the sector. The German Services PMI fell for a fourth consecutive month, printing at 47.7, while the Composite PMI contracted to 47.0 from 47.4 in December. The EU report was a bit more encouraging, as it says: "Contractions in business activity and new orders softened, while growth expectations strengthened to a nine-month high." The EU Composite PMI surged to 47.9, a six-month high. Finally, the EU December Producer Price Index (PPI) contracted by 10.6% YoY and 0.8% MoM, indicating price pressures eased further. S&P Global will later publish the US Services PMI and the Composite PMI for January, while the country will release the official ISM Services PMI, the latter foreseen at 52, up from 50.6 in December. EUR/USD short-term technical outlook The EUR/USD pair trades near its slows, and technical readings in the daily chart show the risk remains skewed to the downside. The pair started the day at around a flat 100 Simple Moving Average (SMA) and could not recover above it. In the meantime, the 20 SMA keeps gaining downward traction above the longer ones. Finally, technical indicators hold within negative levels, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator at 35 and anticipating another leg lower. The 4-hour chart shows bears are not willing to give up. EUR/USD is developing below all its moving averages with firmly bearish slopes. Furthermore, technical indicators remain within negative levels, with the Momentum indicator stable but the RSI indicator nearing oversold readings. A continued decline is expected on a break through 1.0745, the immediate support level. Support levels: 1.0745 1.0710 1.0680 Resistance levels: 1.0790 1.0845 1.0890  

EUR/USD trades below 1.0800 to start the week. Near-term technical outlook suggests that the bearish bias remains intact. ISM will release Services PMI data for January later in the day. EUR/USD stays on the back foot and trades below 1.0800 in the European morning on Monday. The pair's technical outlook shows no signs of a potential rebound as the US Dollar (USD) preserves its strength. EUR/USD fell sharply in the second half of the day on Friday and closed the week in negative territory. After the data from the US showed that Nonfarm Payrolls rose by 353,000 in January, surpassing the market forecast of 180,000 by a wide margin, the USD registered big gains against its major rivals. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate reduction in March is about 15%, down from 30% early Friday.

The first full week of February will deliver a quieter tone compared to last week. Monday's ISM Services PMI for January is the main macro driver in focus for the US, while in Asia Pac, the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) rate decision takes to the front on Tuesday. Forget about March Last week's stage was set exclusively for the Fed, and the primary message was to forget March. While the FOMC left the target rate unchanged at 5.25%-5.50%, it opened the door to rate cuts but the Fed Chairman Jerome Powell almost explicitly pushed back against March's policy meeting, in line with Futures market pricing (24% probability priced in as of writing). Meanwhile, we have also seen a rate repricing for May's policy meeting following Friday's NFP beat, effectively nudging things in favour of a 25bp cut out to June (44bps) rather than May (22bps). Traders also welcomed a slew of US jobs data last week, including increased Job Openings (increased to a little more than 9 million in December 2023; however, with the upward revision of the previous number to 8.93 million, there was little change), weak ADP employment growth (107,000), as well as a -0.4-percentage point drop in the ISM Manufacturing PMI employment component from 47.5 to 47.1 and weekly jobless filings jumping to 224k from a slightly upwardly revised 215k print. On top of this, Friday witnessed a monster beat on the non-farm payrolls release; the US economy added 353,000 new jobs in January, surpassing all estimates and breezing through the 216,000 jump in December. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 3.7%, and the year-on-year earnings surged to 4.5% (M/M rose 0.6%), smashing through all estimates and the prior (4.1%). Needless to say, it was a busy one for US labour data, with Friday's bumper NFP essentially helping seal the deal for a 'no cut' in March and feeding into the US economy's exceptionalism. This also presents a problem for the Fed to move on rates in H1, particularly given the strength of wage growth. Week ahead This week's ISM Services PMI print will essentially be the highlight event for the US, gracing the airwaves at 3:00 pm GMT. The market's median estimate is for an increase to 52.0, up from 50.6 in December 2023 (the estimate range is between 53.0 and 50.6). You may recall that the previous ISM Services release for December revealed narrowing growth, from 52.7 in November to 50.6. An important point to note from the previous release was the meaningful drop into contractionary territory for the ISM Services employment index from 50.7 to an eye-popping 43.3. Consequently, this will be a closely watched number this week. Consider digging into our week-ahead post for the Dollar Index, which is technically demonstrating scope for further outperformance. As for the RBA, no fireworks are expected here. The central bank, scheduled for 3:30 am GMT, is widely expected to hold its Cash Rate unchanged at 4.35% on 6 February for a second consecutive meeting (a 12-year high). According to the ASX 30-Day Interbank Cash Rate Futures, we're pretty much fully priced in for a no-change as of writing (95% probability). Alongside the rate decision, traders will receive the Rate Statement, the quarterly Statement of Monetary Policy (SoMP), which offers the central bank's view on economic conditions, together with an outlook on inflation and growth, as well as the Press Conference held by RBA Governor Michelle Bullock an hour after the rate decision. Therefore, there will be plenty of fresh data for traders to get their teeth into here. The AUD/USD was hammered lower on Friday, launching the currency pair to within a stone's throw from daily support. According to technical studies, further selling is possible this week. G10 FX (5-day change): Source: TradingView

Gold price nurses losses after Friday's stellar US NFP-led sell-off.   US Dollar, Treasury bond yields stay firm amid risk-aversion and Powell's pushback. Gold price remains a 'buy the dips' trade, as a strong support holds and daily RSI stays bullish. Gold price is licking its wounds above $2,030 in the Asian trading hours on Monday, having corrected sharply from monthly highs on Friday. The US Dollar (USD) stays supported alongside the US Treasury bond yields, following the blowout US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report and Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell's interview. Will Middle East geopolitical woes save Gold price? Friday's US labor market report showed that the US economy added a whopping 353K jobs in January, against the 180K expected. Meanwhile, the previous figure was sharply revised up to 333K. The data suggested unrelenting resilience in the US employment sector, killing hopes of early Fed interest rate cuts. The dialing back of Fed rate cuts for this year received a fresh thrust after Fed Chair Jerome Powell, in an interview aired early Monday, dismissed a rate cut next month while pushing back against the timing of the rate cuts. Powell said, "with economy strong, we feel we can approach rate cut timing question carefully. Confidence is rising, but want more confidence before taking 'very important step' of starting rate cuts." The US Dollar and the US Treasury bond yields cheer the pushback against early rate cut expectations by the Fed, keeping Gold price in a downside consolidative phase. The current market positioning suggests an 85% probability that the Fed will stand pat on interest rates next month while for May, the odds of a rate cut stand at about 65%. Despite the persisting conditions against the Gold price, the traditional safe haven could still find support from escalating geopolitical tensions between the West and the Middle East. Amidst the latest updates, US Central Command (USCENTCOM) confirmed on Monday that "on Feb. 4, at approximately 5:30 a.m. (Sanaa time), forces conducted a strike in self-defense against a Houthi land attack cruise missile." In retaliation, the Iran-backed Yemeni Houthi militant group pledged on Sunday to extend their military operations and threatened to respond to the latest set of strikes by the US and the UK over the weekend. If risk-aversion intensifies due to geopolitical tensions, Gold price could attempt a rebound but the safe-haven flows into the US Dollar could limit Gold buyers. Traders will also look forward to the ISM Services PMI and S&P Global final Services PMI data for fresh trading impetus on Gold price. Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart As observed on the daily chart, Gold price managed to close the week above the critical support in the $2,030-$2,035 region, despite a steep correction. That level is the confluence of the triangle resistance-turned-support, 21-day and 50-day Simple Moving Averages (SMA). Further, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator remains above the 50 level, suggesting that a Gold price rebound could be in the offing. Therefore, Gold buyers remain hopeful so long as the abovementioned demand area between $2,030-$2,035 is held up. If the latter gives way, a fresh leg down could be seen, targeting the triangle support at $2,018. The next relevant cushion is seen at the $2,010 round figure, below which the $2,000 barrier will be a tough nut to crack for Gold sellers. On the upside, the immediate strong resistance is seen at the monthly top of $2,065. Further up, the $2,070 round figure could challenge bearish commitments, as Gold optimists aim for the $2,100 threshold.