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The Federal Reserve's rate-setters maintain their outlook for around three quarter-point rate cuts this year, according to Jay Powell, the Fed chair, in an interview aired on Sunday. And definitely not music to the market ears as in the modern-day playbook for stock index operators; 3 cuts versus 6 cuts is terrible news on multiple levels, none more so than the latest market rally was primarily driven by the prospects of aggressive rate cuts in 2024 Powell mentioned on CBS's 60 Minutes that "almost all" Federal Open Market Committee members anticipate the US central bank to reduce rates from their current 23-year high of 5.25-5.5 percent at some juncture during 2024. Back in December, rate-setters, on average, expected to implement 75 basis points of cuts. Powell indicated in an interview on Thursday that while new projections were not due until March 20, no significant developments had prompted substantial changes in forecasts. He added, "If the economy were to weaken, then we could reduce rates earlier and perhaps faster." Conversely, "If inflation were to prove more persistent, that could call for us to reduce rates later and perhaps slower." Initially, markets were anticipating six cuts starting in March. However, Powell's recent remarks suggest such an early move was improbable. Still, combined with a robust January jobs report, hopes of an early spring adjustment have moved from improbable to impossible. Powell's interview preceded the release of non-farm payrolls figures, which showed the economy adding 353,000 jobs — nearly double what economists had predicted. Expressing his views before the figures were made public, Powell emphasized the improving "balance" in the US labour market, stating, "The labour market is very, very strong still." While Powell acknowledged the strength of the labour market, concerns have been raised by other Fed officials regarding the potential for higher wage growth and service prices, complicating the central bank's goal of bringing inflation down to their 2 percent target. Powell's "base case" suggests that inflation will continue to decline over the first six months of this year, given the unwinding supply chain disruptions and the impact of the Fed's rate hikes. Powell highlighted the historical anomaly of these rate increases not leading to a sharper economic slowdown. In summary, Powell emphasized the overall strength of the economy, the robust labour market, and the downward trend in inflation. He reiterated that the Fed is assessing the optimal timing to adjust its policy stance accordingly. Still, there is very little in the tea leaves to suggest the Fed is willing to cut rates beyond preventing to avoid passive tightening through the real-rate channel.

AUD/USD bears outperformed in January, guiding the major pair nearly 250 pips lower, or -3.5%. Monthly coil in play From the monthly timeframe, things have been consolidating between two converging lines ($0.7158 and $0.6170) since late 2022. The fact that there is not a steep pole that precedes the formation, this pattern has been identified as a symmetrical triangle (or coil) rather than a bearish pennant. With price fading the upper boundary of this pattern, bears have room to stretch their legs this week/month to the pattern's lower boundary. Additional technical structure to be aware of on the longer-term chart can be seen from support at $0.6071 and resistance at $0.6959. Another important technical observation for the currency pair on the monthly scale is the Relative Strength Index (RSI) rejecting the lower side of the 50.00 centreline in late 2023, signalling that average losses continue to exceed average gains: negative momentum. Daily support vulnerable Having acknowledged price action fading the upper boundary of a coil pattern on the monthly chart, with scope to extend losses, price movement on the daily chart ventured beneath its 200-day simple moving average (SMA) in the second half of last week ($0.6572), a bearish trend signal (current price is BELOW is 200-day average price). Support on the daily chart is nearby at $0.6502, joined by a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement ratio at $0.6501. The 200-day SMA could potentially deliver dynamic resistance this week; therefore, should the pair engulf $0.6502, the door appears to be pretty much open for breakout sellers to change gears to target as far south as support coming in at $0.6397. H1 resistance on the radar this week Meanwhile, on the H1 chart, we can see a fresh lower low printed on Friday, touching levels not seen since November 2023. This places the $0.65 handle in close proximity this week, shadowed by neighbouring support in the form of a 100% projection ratio at $0.6496 taken from $0.6623, $0.6508 and $0.6610. You may also recognise that this level aligns closely with the daily support mentioned above at $0.6502 and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement ratio at $0.6501. With the above in mind, the monthly timeframe demonstrates scope to continue pressing lower until reaching the lower boundary of the symmetrical triangle, which could imply that daily support from $0.6502 is in a vulnerable position. As a result, any pullback seen this week may be sold, particularly if the pullback meets H1 resistance between $0.6549 and $0.6539. Source: TradingView

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell cooled down hopes for a March rate cut. The US Nonfarm Payrolls report shocked markets with 353K new jobs added. EUR/USD bearish case stronger in the long run, 1.0780 immediate downside barrier. Demand for the US Dollar prevailed these last few days, and EUR/USD ended a third consecutive week with losses at around 1.0800, with the pair remaining depressed and bulls having no reasons to buy the Euro. The focus was on the United States (US) as the Federal Reserve (Fed) announced its monetary policy decision, while the local macroeconomic calendar was packed with employment-related data. The Fed left the benchmark rate steady at 5.25%-5.5% as largely expected, but noticeable changes in the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement and comments from Chairman Jerome Powell triggered risk-off, sending stocks nose-diving and boosting demand for the US Dollar. Powell dropped a bomb But let's go back to the Fed. The statement was mostly optimistic, as it remarked a solid pace of economic expansion, while policymakers acknowledged inflation has shown signs of easing. On the downside, officials noted the labor market is still strong, despite moderating job gains. Policymakers also dropped the wording on rate hikes and replaced it with a more moderate perspective of adjusting the monetary policy according to upcoming data. Finally, they added they need to gain enough confidence in inflation returning to 2% before trimming interest rates Chairman Jerome Powell dropped a bomb in the press conference, as he cooled down the chance of a March interest rate cut. Powell said that it was not the base-case scenario, emphasizing the FOMC is "not really" at a stage where they could consider cutting rates. Following the initial bout of risk-aversion, the odds for a cut in March fell towards 34% after nearing 90% a few weeks ago. But speculative interest quickly recovered from the disappointment: money markets are now pricing in a 57.4% chance of 25 basis points (bps) cut in May. What's going on with Europe? And while the US Dollar keeps swinging according to the market mood, the Euro is clearly being more affected by macroeconomic woes. Germany and the Eurozone released the preliminary estimates of their respective Q4 Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The German economy contracted by 0.3% in the three months to December, while the EU growth stood pat in the same period. Meanwhile, inflation gave encouraging signs in January, as the German Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) rose by 3.1% YoY, according to preliminary estimates, while the EU HICP rate printed at 2.8% YoY. Falling inflation boosted hopes for a soon-to-come European Central Bank (ECB) rate cut, but the picture there is less clear than in the US. Following the central bank's monetary policy announcement last week, President Christine Lagarde said that talks on the matter are "premature," repeating the Governing Council will continue to be data dependant. However, some officials' wording aims in the opposite direction. Earlier this week ECB Governing Council member Mario Centeno said the central bank should start bringing down interest rates sooner rather than later. "We can react later and more strongly, or sooner and more gradually," Centeno added. Additionally, ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos recognized that economic prospects have worsened since December and added that the Euro area's growth could be weaker this year than the central bank predicted. US employment sector offering mixed signals Regarding the US employment sector, data releases throughout the week offered mixed signals, but pretty much confirmed the Fed's assessment of the labor market remaining tight. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that the number of job openings on the last business day of December stood at 9.02 million, up from 8.92 million in November. The ADP survey on private job creation showed 107K new positions were added in January, below the market expectations of 145K.   Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended January 26 increased by 224K, above the market expectation of 215K. Additionally, Q4 Nonfarm Productivity rose 3.2%, beating expectations, while Unit Labor Cost in the same period increased 0.5%, less than the 1.7% expected. On Friday, the US released the January NFP report, which rocked the FX board. The country added 353K new job positions, almost doubling the 180K anticipated. At the same time, the Unemployment Rate held at 3.7% vs an uptick to 3.8% expected. Finally, Average Hourly Earnings rose 4.5% YoY, higher than expected. The US Dollar soared with the news, as it further cooled expectations of rate cuts, with March odds now at 19.5%, although the chance of a May cut remains steady at around 60%. Finally, much of the EUR/USD direction was set by stocks. After collapsing with the Federal Reserve's announcement, US indexes turned higher amid impressive reports from the tech sector. The latter has set the...

GBP/USD remained volatile, ending the week below 1.2700. Fed speakers will take centre stage amid a relatively data-light week ahead. Risks skew against the Pound Sterling from a short-term technical perspective. The Pound Sterling (GBP) traded firmly against the US Dollar (USD) following a two-week sluggish momentum. Mid-week, GBP/USD buyers took back charge even as both the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of England (BoE) pushed back against early interest rate cut expectations. However, the pair turned south on Friday following the release of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report. Pound Sterling staged an unsustained rebound  GBP/USD managed to hold its ground, having tested the weekly low near the 1.2600 region. The pair enjoyed two-way business but remained confined within a familiar range at around the 1.2700 level. The volatile trading around the pair could be attributed to a bunch of top-tier US economic data combined with the Fed and BoE policy announcements. The market expectations surrounding the Fed interest rate outlook dominated the sentiment in the first half of the week. Data on Tuesday showed US JOLTS Job Openings unexpectedly increased in December and suggested that the labor market still remains resilient, squashing hopes of a March Fed rate cut. The US Treasury bond yields came under the bus on Wednesday and smashed the US Dollar alongside, after the ADP Employment Change data came in below estimates at 107K and following the Treasury Department's quarterly announcement that it would sell $121 billion in notes and bonds next week, up from $112 billion last quarter. A relatively hawkish tone delivered by the Fed, following the conclusion of its two-day policy meeting on Wednesday, failed to offer any respite to the US Treasury bond yields while the US Dollar found support from the Fed's dismissal of a March rate cut. The US central bank extended the pause and Fed Chair Jerome Powell said during the post-meeting press conference that "based on the meeting today, I don't think likely we will have a rate cut in March." Amidst renewed US Dollar demand, the upside in the GBP/USD pair remained capped near 1.2750. The Pound Sterling failed to capitalize on the BoE's hawkish rhetoric. Following its February policy meeting on Thursday, the UK central bank held the policy rate at 5.25% but said that inflation risks are skewed to the upside while lifting its 2025 inflation forecast. BoE Governor Andrew Bailey remained non-committal on what will be the Bank's next interest rate move in the upcoming meetings. The voting pattern revealed a three-way split, with one member having voted in favor of a cut and two policymakers voting for a hike. GBP/USD recovered from two-week lows of 1.2625 in the BoE aftermath, helped by a fresh sell-off in the US Treasury bond yields and the US Dollar after the US Labor Department data showed Initial Jobless Claims rose more than expected last week. The risk-on rally on Wall Street indices, thanks to the impressive tech results, also hit the safe-haven demand for the US Dollar. The pair resumed its slide on Friday, following an impressive US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report. The country reported 353K new job positions were added in January, much stronger than the 180K anticipated. The Unemployment Rate held at 3.7% vs an uptick to 3.8% expected, while Average Hourly Earnings rose 4.5% YoY, higher than expected. The US Dollar soared with the news, as it further cooled expectations of a March rate cut.  A data-light week ahead In the weed ahead, the Pound Sterling will take a breather after an action-packed week, full of key central banks' decisions and top-tier US economic data. There are no high-impact data releases from the United Kingdom. Therefore, the ISM Services PMI and Jobless Claims data from the United States will keep traders entertained. Chinese inflation data will be closely scrutinized and could have a significant impact on risk sentiment and the value of the US Dollar, eventually affecting the GBP/USD pair. Speeches from the Fed officials will hog the limelight following a slightly hawkish shift in the Fed's policy stance. GBP/USD: Technical Outlook  The short-term outlook for GBP/USD continues to point to a limited-range trading action so long as the price remains below the static resistance near 1.2830. Acceptance above that level is needed to take on the 1.2900 round figure, above which a fresh uptrend will initiate toward the psychological barrier at 1.3000. Near term, the pair could find initial resistance at the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) just above 1.2700. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator holds comfortably above the 50 level, suggesting that the upside potential remains intact in the major. A sustained move below the weekly low at 1.2625 could trigger a fresh downtrend toward the ascending 200-day SMA at 1.2560. Finally, the 100-day SMA at 1.2475...

Gold made a sharp U-turn after climbing to a multi-week high. Near-term technical outlook points to a loss of bullish momentum. XAU/USD could come under bearish pressure if $2,030 is confirmed as resistance. Gold gathered bullish momentum and climbed to its highest level since early January above $2,060 before erasing a majority of weekly gains on Friday. Comments from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials could impact the precious metal's valuation next week in the absence of high-tier macroeconomic data releases. Gold price declined sharply on Friday Gold benefited from escalating geopolitical tensions and retreating US yields to start the week, gaining more than 0.5% on Monday. News of a drone strike on a US base near Jordan's border with Syria killing three and injuring more than 20 troops revived fears over a deepening crisis in the Middle East.  Ahead of the Federal Reserve's (Fed) policy announcements, Gold remained relatively calm on Tuesday but managed to close in positive territory. On Wednesday, the Fed left the policy rate unchanged at 5.25%-5.5% as expected. The Fed made significant changes to the policy statement and dropped the section about how policymakers will take into account a range of economic indicators in determining the extent of any additional policy firming that may be appropriate. Instead, the US central bank said that they will continue to monitor "the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook" to assess the appropriate stance of policy. The initial reaction to the Fed's tone caused the US Dollar to come under bearish pressure and helped XAU/USD edge higher. In the post-meeting press conference, however, "based on the meeting today, I don't think likely we will have a rate cut in March," Fed Chairman Jerome Powell responded when asked about the possibility of a rate reduction at the next meeting. Following this remark, Wall Street's main indexes fell sharply and helped the USD gather strength, capping the pair's upside in the late American session. Powell also acknowledged that they could cut rates sooner if they saw an unexpected weakening in the labor market. Following the choppy market action seen in the Fed aftermath, US Treasury bond yields turned south in the American session on Thursday and fuelled a fresh leg higher in Gold. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield lost more than 2% and dropped to its lowest level since late December below 3.9% after uninspiring employment-related data releases, while XAU/USD rose above $2,060. There were 224,000 first-time applications for unemployment benefits in the week ending January 27, higher than the market expectation of 212,000, the US Department of Labor reported. Additionally, the ISM Manufacturing PMI improved to 49.1 in January from 47.1 in December but the Employment component declined to 47.1 from 47.5. On Friday, Gold turned south and erased the majority of its weekly gains following the January jobs report. Nonfarm Payrolls in the US rose by 353,000, surpassing the market expectation of 180,000 by a wide margin. November's increase of 216,000 got revised higher to 333,000. Additionally, annual wage inflation, as measured by the change in the Average Hourly Earnings, rose to 4.5%. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield recovered toward 4% on upbeat data and XAU/USD declined below $2,030. Gold price could react to Fedspeak next week The ISM will release the January Services PMI report on Monday. Unless there is a significant divergence in the headline PMI reading, which is forecast to edge higher to 52.0 from 50.6 in December, investors are likely to react to the labor component. The Employment Index declined sharply from 50.7 in November to 43.3 in December, showing a contraction in service sector payrolls. A further decline in this sub-index could weigh on the USD, while a recovery toward or above 50 could help the currency find demand. Nevertheless, the market reaction could remain short-lived in the aftermath of the January labor market figures. The economic calendar will not feature any other high-tier data releases that could impact Gold's valuation later in the week. Instead, market participants will focus on comments from Fed officials. Despite Powell having essentially ruled out a rate cut in March, the CME FedWatch Tool shows that markets are still pricing in a 20% probability of a policy pivot at the next meeting. The market positioning suggests that the USD has some room on the upside in case Fed officials continue to push back against this expectation. On the other hand, XAU/USD could regain traction if policymakers leave the door open to a rate cut next month. That, however, seems increasingly unlikely after the impressive jobs report. Gold technical outlook The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the daily chart retreated to 50 after advancing to 60 before the NFP, highlighting a loss of bullish momentum. The 20-, and 50-day Simple Moving Averages form a pivot...

EUR/USD continues to edge higher following Thursday's rally. Nonfarm Payrolls in the US are forecast to rise by 180,000. The pair could encounter stiff resistance at around 1.0900. After touching its lowest level since December 13 at 1.0780 in the European session on Thursday, EUR/USD reversed its direction in the second half of the day and closed in positive territory. The pair holds comfortably above 1.0850 early Friday and the near-term outlook points to a bullish tilt. The US Dollar (USD) came under selling pressure in the American session on Thursday as US Treasury bond yields continued to push lower following disappointing employment-related data releases. Weekly Initial Jobless Claims rose to 224,000, the highest reading since early November, and the Employment Index of the ISM Manufacturing PMI survey declined to 47.1 in January from 47.5 in December.

Summary Eurozone GDP was flat in the fourth quarter, meaning the region narrowly avoided a technical recession during the second half of last year. Moderate growth in employment and real household incomes and still-subdued sentiment surveys argue against a deep slump in Eurozone activity. However, they do not offer much encouragement for a quick rebound either. We forecast Eurozone GDP growth of 0.7% for 2024, up only slightly from 0.5% in 2023. Eurozone CPI inflation slowed further in January, while when estimated on a six-month annualized basis, underlying inflation already appears to be trending at a pace broadly consistent with the European Central Bank's (ECB) 2% inflation target. Should Eurozone economic growth remain weak enough, and underlying inflation ebb further, we believe the ECB could feel comfortable enough to begin lowering its policy interest rate with a 25 bps cut to 3.75% at its April monetary policy meeting. We also forecast a cumulative 175 bps of rate cuts from the ECB over our forecast horizon through until mid-2025. Our forecast pace of rate cuts is broadly in line with market implied pricing through September of this year, but somewhat more gradual thereafter. Moreover, we view the risks as likely tilted to ECB rate cuts beginning later, or proceeding more gradually, than our base case. Download the full International Commentary

Gold price consolidates the rally to monthly highs on US NFP Friday.   US Dollar and Treasury bond yields attempt a bounce amid risk-on mood.   Gold price remains a 'buy the dips' trade after the triangle breakout, as the daily RSI stays bullish. Gold price is taking a breather early Friday, having rallied 1% to hit fresh monthly highs at $2,065 on Thursday. A modest uptick in the US Dollar (USD), tracking the US Treasury bond yields rebound, is acting as a headwind for Gold price ahead of the highly-anticipated US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data release. US Nonfarm Payrolls to spike up Gold Price Volatility Gold traders brace for a volatility spike on the release of the critical US labor market data, with the NFP figure expected to come in at 180K for January while Average Hourly Earnings are seen rising at an annual pace of 4.1% in the same period. A stronger-than-expected NFP print combined with a surprise upside in the wage inflation data is likely to affirm the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) pushback against early rate cuts, infusing a new life into the US Treasury bond yields while driving the US Dollar back toward multi-week highs against its major peers. In such a case, Gold price could witness a correction from the monthly high. On the contrary, Gold price could resume its uptrend toward the $2,100 threshold, if the US employment data disappoints and revives the odds of a March Fed rate cut. Renewed dovish Fed expectations are likely to reinforce the bearish sentiment around the US Treasury bond yields, as well as, the US Dollar. However, the end-of-the-week-flows are also expected to play a pivotal role, as markets readjust their positions in the Fed aftermath. Gold price remains on track to book the best week in seven, especially after posting a solid rally on Thursday. The US Dollar reversed its gains and fell steeply after the US Labor Department showed Initial Jobless Claims rose more than expected last week. The risk-on rally on the US indices, thanks to the impressive tech results, also hit the safe-haven demand for the US Dollar, helping Gold price regain its lost footing. Heading into the US NFP showdown, markets are pricing a 39% chance that the Fed will cut interest rates in March while that for a May rate cut stands at about 85%. Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart As observed on the daily chart, Gold price remains on track for further upside due to a triangle breakout and a bullish Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator. The 14-day RSI continues to hold firmer above the midline, despite the latest downtick, suggesting that Gold price remains a good buying opportunity on pullbacks.  Gold buyers are likely to stay hopeful so long as they defend the critical support in the $2,030-$2,035 region, where the triangle resistance-turned-support, 21-day and 50-day Simple Moving Averages (SMA) align. On the upside, the immediate strong resistance is seen at the monthly top of $2,065. Further up, the $2,070 round figure could challenge bearish commitments, as Gold optimists target at $2,100 threshold.   Conversely, if the abovementioned strong support around $2,030 is breached, a fresh downside could open up, targeting the triangle support at $2,015. The next relevant cushion is seen at $2,000 barrier, which will be the line in the sand for Gold buyers.

AUD/USD dropped to a new three-month low near 0.6500. Chinese Caixin data came in slightly above estimates. The RBA is largely anticipated to leave its rates unchanged. There was no respite for the selling pressure around the Aussie dollar on Thursday, this time dragging AUD/USD to fresh three-month lows in the boundaries of the 0.6500 contention zone. Indeed, the pair retreated for the third straight session on the back of tepid gains in the greenback and discouraging results from the Chinese docket, where China's Caixin Manufacturing PMI failed to surprise markets in January, coming in just above consensus. Meanwhile, the ongoing leg lower in spot seems to have broken below the critical 200-day SMA in quite convincing fashion, allowing for the continuation of the bearish trend at least in the short-term horizon. While additional stimulus measures by the PBoC to support China's stock market and foster economic recovery post-pandemic initially lent some support to the Aussie dollar, those effects rapidly dissipated pari passu with the absence of positive surprises from the fundamentals of that economy. On another front, the anticipated decision of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to maintain its current policy stance at its February 6 meeting is seen as a factor favouring further weakness in the Australian currency in the near term. Underpinning this prospect emerges the latest inflation data in Australia, where disinflationary pressures gathered extra steam towards the end of last year, as both the Inflation Rate and the RBA's Monthly CPI Indicator rose by (much) less than initially estimated by 4.1% in Q4 and by 3.4% in December, respectively. Next on tap in the domestic calendar are the December readings for Home Loans and Investment Lending for Homes. AUD/USD daily chart AUD/USD short-term technical outlook Further losses might prompt the AUD/USD to retest its 2024 level of 0.6508 (February 1), which is underpinned by the vicinity of the interim 100-day SMA (0.0.6529) and the December 2023 low. Extra weakening from here should not meet any contention of significance until the 2023 bottom of 0.6270 (October 26) ahead of the round level of 0.6200, all of which precede the 2022 low of 0.6169 (October 13). On the upside, there is a brief obstacle at the 55-day SMA of 0.6644. The breakout of this zone may inspire the pair to set sails for the December 2023 high of 0.6871 (December 28), prior to the July 2023 top of 0.6894 (July 14) and the June 2023 peak of 0.6899 (June 16), just before the key 0.7000 level. The 4-hour chart shows initial contention near the 0.6500 neighbourhood for the time being. Once this area is cleared, there is no major disagreement until 0.6452. On the bullish side, 0.6624 is an immediate obstacle ahead of the 200-SMA at 0.6681. The break of this zone suggests a possible advance to 0. 6728.The MACD remains slightly in the negative zone, while the RSI rises to 35. View Live Chart for the AUD/USD

Europe It's been a weak start to the month for European markets as investors weigh the messaging from both the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England, which appears to be that rate cuts are coming, just not as soon as markets were hoping 24 hours ago, prompting some modest weakness across the board. Today saw EU inflation slow by less than expected in January, while the Bank of England was split when it comes today's monetary policy decision. What we can glean from today's press conference with Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey is that while the tightening bias has gone, and that a rate cut is coming, the MPC isn't too keen to signal one yet given the elevated levels of services inflation, and that we might have to wait until June. It was a similar story from Fed chair Jay Powell just under 24 hours ago when he pretty much stomped on the idea of a March rate cut from the Fed, although like the Bank of England, the Fed did signal the end of its own tightening bias. The FTSE100 has performed slightly better than its European peers largely due to a solid day for Shell whose shares rose to 3-week highs after announcing better than expected Q4 profits of $7.3bn, helped by a big jump in integrated gas profits of $3.96bn, pushing annual profits up to $28.25bn, a significant decline on last year's $39.87bn. There was also a 4% increase in the dividend and the announcement of another $3.5bn buyback mainly financed by a $3bn increase in net debt. BT Group shares tried to move higher in early trading before sliding into the red despite reporting a better-than-expected set of Q3 numbers, which have been boosted by a 5% increase in revenues on the consumer side of the business, which rose to £2.56bn, helping to lift Q3 revenues to £5.34bn. Adjusted EBITDA saw an increase of 1% to £2.03bn, with the telecoms giant on course to register its first annual revenue increase since 2017, helped in no small part by price hikes at the start of the year, which have helped push reported profit before tax up by 15% to £1.5bn. Airtel Africa is also higher after reporting a Q3 pre-tax profits of $43m and announcing a share buyback program of $100m. A profit warning from Adidas has seen weakness in the likes of JD Sports and Sports Direct owner Frasers Group. Adidas said it expects operating profits for 2024 to come in at €500m, over half of previous estimates of €1.27bn, largely due to currency effects. US After seeing its worst one-day decline since September, the S&P500 along with the rest of US markets have seen a modest rebound as last night's Powell pushback on a March rate cut shifts the focus to the latest set of earnings numbers from the likes of Amazon, Apple, and Meta Platforms after the bell. With the disappointment over Alphabet and Microsoft's numbers very much front of mind the hope is that tonight's numbers from the rest of the "Magnificent 7" and call a halt to 2 days of decline on the Nasdaq 100.   The US banking sector is set to be in focus after yesterday's slide in New York Community Bancorp due to concerns over its exposure to big losses on US real estate, with the real risk its credit rating could be cut to junk. Qualcomm shares are lower after Q1 revenues came in at $9.94bn and profits of $2.37 a share, with the chip maker extending its contract with Apple until 2027. Q2 guidance was disappointing with the company forecasting a slowdown in revenues of $8.9bn to $9.7bn. Still not seeing much of a sign of a turnaround at Peloton after Q2 revenues come in at $744m, slightly ahead of forecasts, while losses came in at 54c a share. Q3 guidance however was weaker than expected with Peloton downgrading it to between $700m and $725m, with the shares slumping by over 20%. How long before the company is subject to takeover interest? FX It's been a poor start to the month for the US dollar after yesterday's choppy session, with another rise in jobless claims signalling a modest slide. If we were hoping for clues as to when to expect a rate cut from the Bank of England, then today's vote to leave rates unchanged didn't offer much clarity. If anything, they muddied the waters further as 2 MPC members, Mann and Haskel voted for another rate hike, however Swati Dhingra voted for a rate cut. Despite the 2 votes for a rate hike the central bank dropped its reference to further tightening, with the MPC saying it needs to see more evidence before they can consider lowering rates. The Bank of England also updated its inflation forecast for 2024 reducing it to 2.75% from 3.25%, while upgrading its...

XAU/USD Current price: 2,061.48 United States Treasury yields plummeted following mixed employment-related data. The Nonfarm Payrolls report is expected to show that 180K new positions were added in January. XAU/USD is firmly bullish in the near term and looks to test record highs. Gold price resumed its advance and XAU/USD reached a fresh weekly high of $2,065.54, as financial markets left behind the Federal Reserve (Fed) announcement and focused on United States (US) data. The economy keeps proving resilient as the  ISM Manufacturing PMI improved to 49.1 in January from 47.1 in the previous month. Additionally, Q4 Nonfarm Productivity rose 3.2%, beating expectations, while Unit Labor Cost in the same period increased 0.5%, less than the 1.7% expected. Wall Street turned positive, while government bond yields plunged, adding pressure on the Greenback. The 10-year Treasury note currently yields 3.83% after peaking at around 4.06% on  Wednesday, while the 2-year note offers 4.17%. The focus now shifts to the January US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell noted after the FOMC meeting that: "Inflation has eased from its highs without a significant increase in unemployment," taking off some of the pressure on the labor market. The NFP report is expected to show the country added 180K new jobs in January, while the Unemployment Rate is foreseen at 3.8%, ticking modestly higher. XAU/USD short-term technical outlook The XAU/USD pair holds on to gains and trades around the $2,060 level up for a fourth consecutive day. Technically, the pair has room to extend its advance towards January high at $2,078.99. In the daily chart, the bright metal bounced sharply from a flat 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) while the longer moving averages advance below it. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator aims firmly north well above its midline, while the Momentum indicator lags, hovering around neutral levels. In the near term, and according to the 4-hour chart, bulls are in full control. Technical indicators head north almost vertically, while XAU/USD develops above all its moving averages. Furthermore, the 20 SMA extended its advance above the 100 SMA and is about to surpass the 200 SMA, providing dynamic support at around $2,038.40. Support levels: 2,038.40 2,022.75 2,009.10 Resistance levels: 2,065.60 2,079.00 2,088.50