XAU/USD Current price: $2,033.05 The United States' Gross Domestic Product was downwardly revised to 3.2% in Q4. Investors await an update on US inflation before taking directional compromises. XAU/USD is technically neutral with bulls ready to jump in. Tepid United States (US) macroeconomic data helped XAU/USD bounce from an intraday low of $2,024.38. The bright metal trimmed intraday losses and turned positive for the day, currently changing hands at around $2,033 a troy ounce. The country released the second estimate of the Q4 Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which showed the economy grew at an annualized pace of 3.2% in the last three months of 2023, slightly below the 3.3% previously estimated.  Additionally,   the January Goods Trade Balance posted a deficit of $90.1 billion, worse than the $-89.1  billion posted in December. Meanwhile, stock markets spent the day on the back foot amid a retracement in the tech sector. At the time being, Wall Street trimmed most of its early losses, but the three main indexes remain in the red. The focus shifts now to the US Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index. The Federal Reserve's (Fed) favourite inflation gauge will be out on Thursday and is expected to show easing price pressures in January. That would contradict the hotter-than-anticipated January Consumer Price Index (CPI) released a couple of weeks ago and put markets in risk-on mode. XAU/USD short-term technical outlook From a technical point of view, XAU/USD maintains the neutral-to-bullish stance. In the daily chart, the pair met buyers around a flat 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) which keeps developing well above the longer ones. As Gold trades little changed for a third consecutive day, technical indicators extend their consolidative phase around their midlines, failing to provide directional clues. The near-term picture is also neutral. Technical indicators in the 4-hour chart have lost their directional momentum within neutral levels, although XAU/USD stands just above a bullish 20 SMA. Finally, the longer moving averages remain directionless below the shorter one, reinforcing the idea of a limited downward potential. Support levels: 2,027.00 2,019.60 2,011.40 Resistance levels: 2,041.40 2,056.10 2,065.60

EUR/USD came under bearish pressure and declined toward 1.0800 early Wednesday. Cautious market mood could make it difficult for the pair to rebound. US economic calendar will feature second estimate of Q4 GDP growth. After failing to clear 1.0860 resistance on Tuesday, EUR/USD turned south and declined toward 1.0800 early Wednesday. The pair's technical outlook points to a bearish tilt in the near term. Market participants will pay close attention to the risk perception and the revision to the US growth data. The broad-based US Dollar (USD) weakness helped EUR/USD push higher in the first half of the day on Tuesday. The mixed action in Wall Street's main indexes and the resilience of the US Treasury bond yields, however, helped the currency hold its ground and didn't allow the pair to gather bullish momentum. The risk-averse market atmosphere, as reflected by retreating US stock index futures, supports the USD midweek and weighs on EUR/USD.

Markets A batch of US data turned out mixed yesterday. Strong core capital good shipments (investment proxy) compensated for negatively distorted durable goods orders (Boeing). House prices rose in line with forecasts but consumer confidence unexpectedly retreated on a deteriorating current and six month ahead assessment on the economy and jobs. Second tier business sentiment indicators were unable to settle the debate either, especially with a more important one (manufacturing ISM) scheduled later for release on Friday. US yields whipsawed with net daily changes of -2.6 bps (2-y) to +3.2 bps (30-y) eventually. The $42bn 7-y auction went smoother than Monday's 5-y but didn't leave a stamp. German Bunds underperformed. They erased intraday gains to push yields 0.4 to 3.3 bps higher to make the curve slightly less inverse. Equities along with major FX didn't choose a strong direction. The EuroStoxx50 hit new multiyear highs but Wall Street finished mixed. EUR/USD ended the day slightly weaker at 1.0844, DXY an inch higher. Above-consensus Japanese CPI helped JPY close to nothing. USD/JPY (150.51) closed well above the daily lows. Drowned Under. The central bank of New Zealand softened its previous threat to lift rates even further (see below), turning the Kiwi dollar into this morning's biggest underperformer. The Aussie dollar trades on the backfoot as well following (incomplete) monthly CPI figures (January 3.4% vs 3.6% expected). USD takes a lead during mild risk-off. US cash yields ease less than 2 bps and German yields are ready for a lower open as well. Belgium kicks off the CPI bonanza today, be it with a national calculation (instead of the harmonized one). Most of the EU member states (harmonized) CPI readings are due tomorrow (ahead of the euro area figure on Friday), however. In absence of other market-impacting data, it means we may be looking at a quiet trading session with moves being mainly technically inspired. Fed's Williams (New York), Collins (Boston) and Bostic (Atlanta) hit the wires today. We expect them to repeat Waller's "what's the rush" (for cutting rates) in some form or another. The power of repetition brought US money markets more or less in line with the December dot plot (three cuts this year) meanwhile. Core bond yields in any case enjoy a solid floor beneath them. The dollar's recent correction looks ready for a reversal. Spillovers from Asian equity markets to Europe could help the greenback in the process. News and views The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) kept its policy rate unchanged at 5.5% this morning. Interest rates need to remain at a restrictive level for a sustained period of time. Annual headline CPI is expected to return to the 1%- 3% target band by Q4 this year and to the 2%-midpoint later in 2025. Risks to the inflation outlook are more balanced than at the time of the November meeting/update. Restrictive monetary policy and lower global growth have contributed to aggregate demand slowing to better match the supply capacity of the NZ economy. High population growth (immigration) still supports aggregate spending and also helps easing capacity constraints in the labour market. Updated forecasts show policy rates (at least) level until Q1 2025 with the probability of an additional hike being slightly lower (5.6% policy rate peak compared to 5.7% in November). OCR projections otherwise barely changed (unaltered 4.9% in Q4 2025; 3.5% from 3.6% in Q4 2026). Annual inflation is expected at 3.8% for the March FY (from 4.3%), 2.6% for FY 2025 (from 2.4%) and 2% for FY 2026 (unchanged). The new growth path is 0.3%-1.2%-2.8% from 1.2%-1.4%-2.8%. NZD swap rates plunge 16 bps (30-yr) to 23 bps (2-yr) this morning as markets now rule out an additional rate hike. The kiwi dollar drops from NZD/USD 0.6170 to 0.6110. Bank of England deputy governor Ramsden, who oversees financial markets, said that the UK central bank may continue running down its QE portfolio even after hitting the "preferred minimum range of reserves" which it estimates in the range of £335bn to £495bn. The BoE's asset portfolio declined from a £895bn peak to currently £735bn with Ramsden suggesting that the BoE can wind it down completely should it be necessary. This view contrasts with for example the Fed which wants to maintain a structural bond portfolio to back an ample level of reserves. Download The Full Sunrise Market Commentary

Gold price finds buyers to once again retest two-week highs of $2,041 early Wednesday. US Dollar extends rebound but weak Treasury bond yields could cap the upside. The 4H technical setup appears constructive, as Gold price awaits US data. Gold price is duplicating the price action seen during Tuesday's Asian trading, as bulls attempt another comeback early Wednesday. The US Dollar (USD) is building on the previous recovery, despite a minor pullback in the US Treasury bond yields, as markets turn tentative ahead of a fresh batch of US GDP and PCE data due later in the day. Gold continues to find dip-demand Markets are seemingly quiet, digesting the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's (RBNZ) dovish hold decision on the interest rate. Traders take profits off the table on their recent US Dollar short positions, awaiting a fresh directional impetus on the upcoming US economic data releases. The US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) second estimate for the fourth quarter and the PCE deflator could help the markets reprice the Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cut bets for this year. Markets are currently pricing in about an 80% chance of a no rate cut by the Fed in the May meeting while the probability that the Fed will begin lowering rates in June stands at 60%, down from about 70% seen last week. The sentiment surrounding the expectations of a Fed policy pivot will continue to drive the value of the US Dollar, as well as, the Gold price in the sessions ahead. Gold price has been struggling to resist above the $2,033 level so far this week, having hit a two-week high of $2,041 last Friday. The uptrend in the US Treasury bond yields, in the wake of hawkish commentary from Fed officials, is keeping Gold price upside restricted. Fed Governor Michelle Bowman said on Tuesday that slower-than-expected progress on inflation has left her cautious about monetary policy stance. Earlier in the day, Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid, a new hawk, noted that there is "no need to preemptively adjust the stance of policy." "Fed should be patient, wait for convincing evidence that inflation fight has been won," Schmid added. Gold price technical analysis: Four-hour chart Following an upside breakout from the pennant on Tuesday, Gold price extended higher but ran into offers just below the two-week high of $2,041. At the moment, Gold price is struggling around the 21-Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $2,033. Acceptance above that level is needed on a four-hour candlestick closing basis to revive the uptrend. The 50-Simple Moving Average (SMA) is on the verge of cutting the 200-SMA for the upside. If that happens, a Golden Cross formation will be confirmed, opening doors for a fresh upsurge.   The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is holding well above the midline, backing the bullish potential. The immediate resistance for Gold price aligns at the two-week high of $2,041. Further up, the $2,050 psychological barrier will challenge the bearish commitments, as Gold buyers target the static resistance at around $2,065. On the other side, a failure to resist above the 21-SMA at $2,033, Gold price could see a fresh downswing toward the immediate demand area around near $2,026, which is the confluence zone of the 50- and 200-SMAs. A breach of the latter could trigger a fresh drop toward the 100-SMA at $2,022. The last line of defense for Gold buyers is Friday's low of $2,016.

AUD/USD traded in an inconclusive note on Tuesday. Further losses could refocus on the 2024 low near 0.6450. Commodities and China keep the AUD under scrutiny. The Australian dollar resumed the upward trend following a negative start to the week, prompting AUD/USD to chart humble gains around the mid-0.6500s The slight uptick in AUD/USD occurred despite the equally marginal advance in the Greenback, as well as the continuation of the intense sell-off in iron ore prices, which reached multi-month lows near the $126.00 yardstick in response to increasing inventories and heightened uncertainty surrounding the Chinese housing market. Spot price movements also mirrored the lacklustre performance of the US Dollar, as investors continued to assess the probability of the Federal Reserve (Fed) initiating monetary easing around June or later. This assessment gained traction following the release of strong US inflation data, coupled with persistently hawkish remarks from select Fed officials. Despite the recent recovery of the currency pair, investors are expected to closely monitor developments in China, fluctuations in commodity prices (particularly copper and iron ore), and movements in the Greenback. While potential additional stimulus measures in China could provide temporary support for a rebound, news indicating a more sustainable recovery in the country is essential for offering stronger support to the Australian dollar and potentially triggering a more significant upward movement in AUD/USD. An upswing in the Chinese economy is also anticipated to coincide with a rise in commodity prices, further bolstering the AUD. Regarding the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), the cautious approach from the central bank is likely to prevent significant downward pressure on the Australian dollar, as it is considered one of the latest G10 central banks to commence its interest rate cuts process. AUD/USD daily chart AUD/USD short-term technical outlook After clearing the weekly high of 0.6595 (February 22), AUD/USD may retest the temporary 55-day SMA around 0.6627, which coincides with the late-January peaks (January 30). A break above this range may send the pair to the December 2023 top of 0.6871 (December 28), seconded by the July 2023 peak of 0.6894 (July 14) and the June 2023 high of 0.6899 (June 16), all before the critical 0.7000 barrier. On the other side, bearish moves may cause spot to initially hit its 2024 bottom of 0.6452 (February 13). Breaking below this level might result in a return to the 2023 low of 0.6270 (October 26), followed by the round level of 0.6200 and the 2022 low of 0.6169 (October 13). It is worth noting that for the AUD/USD to experience more short-term gains, it must first leave behind the critical 200-day SMA, which is currently at 0.6560, in a sustained manner. The four-hour chart suggests that the consolidative attitude will persist for the time being. The initial resistance level is 0.6595, followed by 0.6610. Surpassing this zone suggests a potential development to 0.6728. Meanwhile, a breach of 0.6442 may result in a potential drop to 0.6347, then 0.6338. The MACD eased to the zero line, while the RSI retreated to the sub-50 area.

Despite a number of financial releases due out this week being quite interesting, on a monetary level, RBNZ's interest rate decision caught our attention. In contrast to other central banks, the market's expectations for RBNZ to ease its monetary policy tend to be rather low. The Macroeconomics Currently inflation in New Zealand, despite easing considerably since late 2022, remains potentially one of the main problems of New Zealand's economy. It's characteristic how the headline CPI rate slowed down from 7.2% yoy in late 2022 to 4.7% yoy in Q4 2023. Yet the rate is still above the bank's target range of 2.00±1.00% adding more pressure on the bank to maintain a tight monetary policy for longer. Particularly prices in household & utilities, rent and food inflation tend to remain stubbornly high and above the target, thus posing substantial problems in the everyday life of New Zealanders. Yet given the bank's dual mandate to watch over inflation and promote maximum employment at the same time, forces us to turn our attention also on New Zealand's employment market as another factor which will determine the bank's stance. It should be noted that the unemployment rate is currently at 4% which is considered rather low, yet is rising albeit at a slower pace than what was expected. Furthermore, the job growth rate seems to remain somewhat healthy. At the same time the labour cost index growth rate tends to remain relatively high despite slowing down somewhat over the past two quarters, implying that the labour market may continue feeding inflationary pressures in the short term. As a general comment, we could say that the employment market is still holding its tightness despite some cracks starting to appear, which may allow the bank to maintain a firm stance. As the main reason of worries for New Zealand's economy we note the growth factor. New Zealand's economy suffered a wide contraction over Q3 and if combined with RBNZ's tight monetary policy, one could reasonably expect it to fall into a recession. Despite this not being part of the bank's mandate as such, it may still add pressure on the bank to start easing its monetary policy.  The interest rate part of the decision   For the time being we note that currently, the market is pricing in the possibility of the bank remaining on hold, keeping the official cash rate (OCR), at 5.5%, by 77% according to NZD OIS, with the other 23% implying that a 25 basis points rate hike is also possible. Please note that the ICR is currently at a 15 year high level, The market also seems to be pricing in the possibility that the bank is to remain on hold for a prolonged period and actually proceed with a rate cut of 25 basis points in November. Overall we tend to concur the wit the market expectation for the bank to remain on hold in tomorrow's meeting as a base scenario that may disappoint somewhat Kiwi traders, at least those expecting a rate hike, thus weighing slightly on the Kiwi. Yet we have to note that in its projections the bank at its last meeting did not seem to expect a possible rate cut in 2024 and as a word of caution, please note that the bank did not hesitate in the past to ignore market expectations, routing for a more independent path. In regards to the OCR we expect the bank to maintain a wait-and-see position for the time being. Should the bank remain on hold as expected, we may see attention being shifted to the accompanying statement and RBNZ Governor Orrs' press conference later on.     The tone of the decision Overall, we expect the bank to maintain a strong hawkish tone, given that inflation despite slowing down is still above the bank's target. It's characteristic that in the last statement, the bank mentioned in its forward guidance that "The Committee is confident that the current level of the OCR is restricting demand. However, ongoing excess demand and inflationary pressures are of concern, given the elevated level of core inflation. If inflationary pressures were to be stronger than anticipated, the OCR would likely need to increase further". So the element of a potential rate hike is still present and if repeated as expected could provide some support for the Kiwi. Overall we expect the bank to remain hawkish in both Andrian Orrs' press conference and the accompanying statement, also as it may want to push back against the pressure being exercised on the bank for an earlier rate cut. Hence we expect the tone of the decision to be leaning more on the hawkish side and should its hawkishness exceed market expectations we may see the release supporting the Kiwi.    Technical analysis NZD/USD H4 Chart Support: 0.6120 (S1),...

XAU/USD Current price: $2,030.69 Stocks struggle to extend gains after disappointing United States macroeconomic data. According to CB, United States Consumer Confidence fell for the first time in four months. XAU/USD gains downward traction in the near term, but trades within well-familiar levels. Spot Gold holds on to modest gains mid-US afternoon, with XAU/USD trading around $2,030 a troy ounce. The bright metal aroused no interest among market players on Tuesday, as the pair has fluctuated in the $5.00 range ever since the Asian opening. The Greenback remained on the back foot for most of the day, finding short-lived demand ahead of Wall Street's opening and following United States (US) macroeconomic figures. On the one hand, the country published January Durable Goods Orders, which fell 6.1% in the month, much worse than the 4.5% decline anticipated by market players. On the other hand, the Conference Board (CB) Consumer Confidence contracted to 106.7 in February from a downwardly revised 110.9 in January, declining for the first time in four months. Also, and according to the official report,  the Present Situation Index, which reflects consumers' current perception of the business and labor market environment, fell to 147.2 from 154.9, while the  Expectations Index slipped below the pivotal 80 threshold to 79.8.   The data disappointment weighed on stocks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average sunk, while the S&P500 struggles around its opening level, battling to turn green. At the same time, the 10-year Treasury note yield remains stable around the 4.30% figure. Overall, market participants extend the cautious wait-and-see stance ahead of inflation-related data to be released later in the week. XAU/USD short-term technical outlook The XAU/USD pair is little changed for a second consecutive day but retains the neutral-to-bullish stance. In the daily chart, the bright metal keeps developing above a flat 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA), currently at $2.025, in line with the absence of directional strength. However, the 100 SMA keeps heading north well below the current level, skewing the scale to the bulls' side. Finally, technical indicators keep consolidating around their midlines, failing to provide fresh directional clues. The technical landscape for XAU/USD in the 4-hour chart indicates easing buying interest. Gold remains above all its moving averages, which lack directional strength, but technical indicators are turning south, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator sitting above the midline but heading sharply lower, anticipating a potential bearish extension, particularly on a break below the $2,027 support area.  Support levels: 2,027.00 2,019.60 2,011.40 Resistance levels: 2,041.40 2,056.10 2,065.60

EUR/USD Current price: 1.0858 Market participants await inflation updates that could affect central banks' upcoming decisions. United States Durable Goods Orders and CB Consumer Confidence coming up next. EUR/USD is technically bullish in the near term, but sill limited by a critical Fibonacci level. The EUR/USD pair trades lifeless around the 1.0850 level as market players extend the wait-and-see phase ahead of the release of relevant inflation-related figures and a slew of Federal Reserve (Fed) speakers. The US Dollar trades with a soft tone across the FX board, struggling to find direction as stock markets consolidate their recent gains near record highs. The focus remains on the release of the United States (US) January Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index. The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) is expected to report the largest gain in a year in the Fed's favorite inflation gauge next Thursday, following an optimistic December report which suggested tempered inflationary pressures. However, the January Consumer Price Index (CPI) surprised with higher-than-anticipated readings, fueling speculation the central bank will further delay rate cuts. At this point, market participants are betting the central bank will trim the current record interest rate next June, but bets can change should PCE inflation bring a positive surprise. Meanwhile, the Eurozone and Germany will also deliver inflation updates. The economies will unveil their preliminary estimates of the February Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) in the upcoming days. Earlier in the day, the EU released the January M3 Money Supply report prepared by the European Central Bank (ECB). The document indicated a persistently sluggish growth in the broad monetary aggregate M3, which increased by a mere 0.1% in the month, slightly decelerating from a revised 0.2% increase in December 2023. Germany unveiled the Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey, which showed a modest improvement from -29.6 to -29 in March. The upcoming US session will bring January Durable Goods Orders, expected to have plummeted 4.5% in the month, and CB Consumer Confidence, which is foreseen unchanged at 114.8. EUR/USD short-term technical outlook The EUR/USD pair peaked at 1.0866, meeting sellers at around the  38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 1.1139-1.0694 daily slump at 1.0865, although it remains just below the critical resistance area. Technical readings in the daily chart reflect the absence of directional momentum, although the risk remains skewed to the upside, as technical indicators decelerated their advances but hold well above their midlines. At the same time, the pair develops above all its moving averages, although they remain directionless and confined to a tight 40 pips range, reflecting the lack of directional interest. The EURUSD pair retains its bullish potential in the near term. The 4-hour chart shows technical indicators moving marginally higher within positive levels. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator ticked higher and is currently developing around 65, suggesting the pair has room to extend gains, particularly if it clearly breaks through the aforementioned Fibonacci resistance level. At the same time, the 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) has crossed above the 200 SMA, while the 100 SMA stands far below the longer one, usually a sign of bulls' control. Speculative interest is cautiously optimistic, but additional technical signs are required to confirm another leg north.  Support levels: 1.0825 1.0770 1.0720 Resistance levels: 1.0865 1.0910 1.0950

EUR/USD registered its highest daily close since early February on Monday. The technical outlook suggests that the bullish bias remains intact. The pair could push higher once it stabilizes above 1.0860. EUR/USD extended its recovery at the beginning of the week and registered its highest daily close since early February at 1.0850 on Monday. The pair faces immediate resistance at 1.0860 and it could continue to push higher once this level turns into support. European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde told the European Parliament on Monday that wage pressure in the Euro area were still strong and added that the restrictive policy stance was acting as a safeguard against a wage-price spiral. Lagarde's remarks helped the Euro hold its ground during the American trading hours.

European and American stocks kicked off the week with a pause, as investors took a breather after sending major stock indices in these regions to record highs. The Stoxx 600, the S&P500 and Nasdaq 100 all retreated from an ATH level on Monday. MAMAA stocks were down around 1%, Amazon – which had it first day at Dow Jones Industrial index fell 0.15% whereas Nvidia managed to eke out a small gain. It feels like there is a moment of calm and silence in the aftermath of major tech earnings, investors will decide whether this rally deserves to continue higher straight away. The week brings some important economic data on the table. The US will release its latest growth and inflation updates this week. And favourable data – meaning resilient but not abnormally strong growth, coupled with softening inflation, would allow the market bulls to surf on the 'goldilocks' wave. If that's the case, we could see the stock market rally continue, and to broaden to sectors other than the technology stocks. The equal weigh S&P500 index could make an attempt to catch up the technology-heavy S&P500. If not, if growth is resilient, but inflation ticks higher in a way that's concerning for the Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations, we could see profit taking and a downside correction across major US indices, and selling could spill over to the other major stock markets. But there are concerns regarding – not the strength of the US growth, but inflation's trajectory. US economic is expected to have grown 3.3% in Q4 – lower than the 5% printed a quarter earlier but still a very strong growth for an economy that has experienced the most aggressive rate hiking cycle of its modern history. And the core PCE – which excludes food and energy prices – is expected to jump by most in a year. Three and six-month inflation – which both fell below the Fed's 2% target  recently- are also expected to spike above this 2% level. An uptick in inflation is not good news for the Fed doves, who already dropped the expectation that the Fed would cut rates by March, and then by May, and now they are trimming the June cut expectations. The expectation of a June Fed cut is given around 60% chance before this week's inflation figures are released. This probability was around 70% just yesterday. US GDP data is due Wednesday, inflation on Thursday. And before that, today, we will have an insight on the durable goods orders, house prices and the Richmond Fed manufacturing index. Voila. The US 2-year yield is just around the 4.70%, the 10-year yield is a touch below the 4.30% level. Yesterday's 2 and 5-year US auctions both settled at higher yields, as supply was heavy both in government and corporate bond sales. Vanguard's intermediate-term treasury ETF saw the biggest weekly inflow on record as investors continued to scale back their Fed cut expectations fearing that a hotter-than-expected inflation read this week could spoil the market mood. Softening Fed expectations caused outflows from short and ultra-long term bonds to medium-term papers. And speaking of inflation, inflation in Japan fell to a 22-month low. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is in no rush to hike the rates this April. The USDJPY is getting comfortably near the 150 level, as the Nikkei 225 consolidates near ATH levels. In commodities, US crude saw support near the 100-DMA yesterday, but appetite remains insufficient to push the price of a barrel to and above the $80pb level. Nat gas futures remain under pressure as investors remain reluctant to buy the dip even near the current oversold levels. Iron ore prices, on the other hand, fell to the lowest levels since November – a warnings regarding China's inability to boost its property sector despite stimulus.

Gold price bounces toward two-week highs of $2,041 early Tuesday. US Dollar sags with US Treasury bond yields, as key economic data awaited. Gold price teases a pennant breakout and Bull Cross on the 4H chart. Gold price is attempting another run toward the two-week highs of $2,041 reached on Friday, as the US Dollar keeps its downbeat tone intact amid renewed weakness in the US Treasury bond yields and ahead of the top-tier US economic data. Gold buyers take chance as US data looms A sense of caution prevails in Asian trading early Tuesday, as traders eagerly await a fresh batch of high-impact US economic data, including the Durable Goods Orders and Consumer Confidence, for a fresh signal on the timing of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) policy pivot. Markets are currently pricing in about an 80% chance of a no rate cut by the Fed in the May meeting while the probability that the Fed will begin lowering rates in June stands at 60%, down from about 70% seen last week. Hawkish commentaries from Fed policymakers continue to push back against rate cut expectations, helping the US Treasury bond yields find a floor On Friday, New York Fed President John Williams said that "rate cuts are likely later this year, but only if appropriate." Meanwhile, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said that there is no rush to begin cutting interest rates.  Early Tuesday, Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid, a new hawk, noted that there is "no need to preemptively adjust the stance of policy." "Fed should be patient, wait for convincing evidence that inflation fight has been won," Schmid added. However, the US Dollar fails to draw any inspiration ahead of Thursday's key inflation data release. Therefore, Gold price is looking to extend the previous rebound from the $2,025 support, as traders are likely to refrain from placing fresh bets on the US Dollar before the macro news trickles in. Gold price technical analysis: Four-hour chart As observed on the four-hour chart, Gold price is teasing an upside break from a pennant formation, testing the falling trendline resistance at $2,034. Acceptance above that level on a four-hour candlestick closing basis is needed to confirm a bullish breakout. The 50-Simple Moving Average (SMA) is looking to cut the 100-SMA for the upside. If that happens, it will validate a Bull Cross. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is pointing north above the midline. Amid potential bullish indicators, the next upside target for Gold price appears a two-week high of $2,041. Further up, the $2,050 psychological barrier will challenge the bearish commitments. On the flip side, a failure to resist above the aforementioned trendline resistance at $2,034, Gold price could see a fresh downswing toward the immediate demand area around near $2,028, which is the confluence xone od the 21-, 200-SMAs and the rising trendline support. A breach of the latter could trigger a fresh drop toward the 50- and 100-SMAs intersection point at $2,021. The line in the sand for Gold buyers is Friday's low of $2,016.

AUD/USD reversed its multi-session positive streak on Monday. The 0.6600 region continues to cap the upside bias. Iron ore prices retreated to four-month lows on Chinese jitters. The upward momentum of the Australian dollar halted on Monday after eight consecutive sessions of gains vs. the US Dollar (USD). In fact, AUD/USD reversed its upward trend despite the continuation of the sell-off in the Greenback and exclusively in response to the marked drop in prices of the tonne of iron ore, which reached multi-month lows near $126.00 on the back of rising inventories and further uncertainty around the Chinese housing market. Price action in spot also followed the lacklustre performance of the US Dollar, as investors continued to assess the likelihood of the start of monetary easing by the Federal Reserve (Fed) around June or later. This evaluation gained momentum following the latest robust US inflation data, along with persistently hawkish comments from certain Fed officials. Despite the recent recovery of the pair, investors are expected to closely monitor developments in China, fluctuations in commodity prices (especially copper and iron ore), and movements in the Greenback. While additional stimulus measures in China could temporarily support a rebound, news indicating a more sustainable recovery in the country is crucial for providing stronger backing to the Australian dollar and potentially triggering a more significant upward movement in AUD/USD. A rebound in the Chinese economy is also anticipated to coincide with an increase in commodity prices, further supporting the AUD. Moreover, the cautious stance of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is likely to prevent substantial downward pressure on the Australian dollar. AUD/USD daily chart AUD/USD short-term technical outlook After clearing the weekly top of 0.6595 (February 22), AUD/USD might retest the temporary 55-day SMA at 0.6627, which coincides with the late-January peaks (January 30). A break above this range may propel the pair to the December 2023 high of 0.6871 (December 28), followed by the July 2023 top of 0.6894 (July 14), and the June 2023 peak of 0.6899 (June 16), all before the crucial 0.7000 level. On the other hand, bearish attempts may trigger AUD/USD to initially approach its 2024 low of 0.6452 (February 13). Breaking below this level may lead to a return to the 2023 low of 0.6270 (October 26), followed by the round level of 0.6200 and the 2022 low of 0.6169 (October 13). It is worth mentioning that for AUD/USD to see more short-term gains, it must first leave behind the crucial 200-day SMA, which is now at 0.6561, in a sustainable fashion. The 4-hour chart implies the continuation of the consolidative mood. That said, the initial resistance level is 0.6595, which is followed by 0.6610. Surpassing this zone indicates a likely progression to 0.6728. Meanwhile, a breakdown of 0.6442 may cause a decline to 0.6347 and then 0.6338. The MACD stayed bullish, while the RSI fell to the sub-47 zone.