MARKETS Following an initial surge early in the session, U.S. stocks maintained a strong performance, with the S&P 500 steadily grinding toward record territory. Notably, the Dow achieved another record high, contributing to the overall impressive showing on the broader New York ticker tape. Without a tablespoon of doubt, investors are encouragingly acknowledging that inflation has experienced a notable decline across most major economies from the peak observed last year. Notably, this has occurred without the need for a recession. The United States and most G10 economies outperformed expectations in 2023, and despite this positive economic performance, inflation followed a favourable downward trajectory, confounding many Fed critics.  The welcome retreat in headline inflation, with Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) assuredly in tow, is now laying the groundwork for potential interest rate relief in 2024—a point underscored by last week's decision by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Consequently, financial markets are currently basking in anticipation of a more festive holiday season, revelling in the optimism of profitable Santa Rally cheer. Indeed, The Federal Reserve seems ready to offer relief in the coming year, signalling the likelihood of at least three rate reductions in 2024. And the bond markets are promptly off the races, anticipating the Fed will mechanically take this action as inflation ebbs further. Rates on 10-year Treasury bonds have already dropped to 3.9%, a notable decrease from the 5 % observed less than two months ago, all transpiring without explicit economic softening. Indeed, investors are coalescing around the notion that the Federal Reserve will start trimming interest rates as inflation approaches containment.  The effective single mandate in force since early 2022 appears no longer applicable. Taking the latest Fed guidance at face value, they have seemingly reverted to the dual mandate, prioritizing a foundational level of economic growth, even if it means immolating the proverbial "last" inflation "mile" – such as the transition from 3% core price growth back to 2%. FOREX MARKETS The short-covering rally in USDJPY following the BoJ was more robust than anticipated; in my view, it provided an excellent chance to re-enter USDJPY shorts. However, the current time of the year and the unpredictability of year-end financing charges have likely tempered a more substantial reversion. So, we have covered our high 144 reversion trade as liquidity metrics have fallen off in the New York afternoon. We think the market read too much in BoJ Governor Ueda's pushback against any notion that Fed policy shifts influence the timing of monetary policy actions in Japan.  The Federal Reserve no longer sets interest rates; the bond market does. After all, from the October highs near 8%, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate has experienced a significant drop, thanks to a remarkable rally at the long end of the U.S. Treasury curve. Freddie Mac's weekly update showed the six percent handle this week for the first time since August 10. Notably, the continued rally in the U.S. Treasury market is expected to keep the 10-year JGB yield below the current reference rate of 1%, justifying and providing an open window for a shift in the yield curve control policy in January. After experiencing a setback overnight, the yen is expected to return to being primarily influenced by U.S. interest rates, where a soft PCE reading could send USDJPY back into the 142 handle. Additionally, market attention will remain focused on statements and communications from Federal Reserve officials. OIL MARKETS In response to the disruptions in shipping at the Red Sea and despite Operation "Prosperity Guardian," a coalition to address security challenges in the Red Sea, oil prices were pushed higher on a combination of holiday hedges and goldilocks arriving at the oil patch.  As the holiday season draws near, achieving a stable outcome for the region appears elusive. The prolonged conflict in Gaza continues to fuel an escalating humanitarian crisis, adding political pressure on multiple actors. This situation raises concerns about a potential expansion of the conflict. Amidst ongoing rocket attacks and bombings, the inherent uncertainty of war increases the likelihood of unforeseen events and substantial miscalculations, which could lead to further escalation of the already volatile situation.

XAU/USD Current price: 2,041.64 US Treasury yields continue to retreat, with the 10-year note offering its lowest since July. Focus remains on the US Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index. XAU/USD advances towards $2,050 with room to extend gains beyond the level. Gold trades with a better tone on Tuesday, helped by the broad US Dollar's weakness. XAU/USD changes hands around $2,0403, approaching the high posted last week at $2,047.90. The positive tone of equities reflects persistent risk appetite, undermining demand for the American currency. Wall Street extends weekly gains, with the Nasdaq Composite reaching record highs for a third consecutive session, in line with central banks-inspired relief. Adding pressure on the USD, Treasury yields resumed their slides. The 10-year government bond offers 3.90% at the time being, its lowest since late in July, while the 2-year note yields 4.43%, holding near the multi-month low posted last week at  4.28% and down 2 basis points (bps) on the day. The United States (US) macroeconomic calendar had little to offer. The country unveiled November Building Permits, which declined by 2.5% MoM and Housing Starts, which rose 14.8% in the same month. Speculative interest awaits the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) favorite inflation measure, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, to be released on Friday. XAU/USD short-term technical outlook The daily chart for the XAU/USD pair maintains the risk skewed to the upside. The pair met buyers on an intraday retracement at around a bullish 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) while the longer moving averages tick modestly higher, far below the shorter one. At the same time, technical indicators post modest intraday advances, although the Momentum indicator remains within neutral levels. XAU/USD is also bullish in the near term. The 4-hour chart shows a flat 100 SMA offered intraday support, while the 20 SMA gains upward traction above the longer one. Finally, technical indicators head north, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator at around 64 and the Momentum indicator piercing its midline. Overall, XAU/USD is foreseen to advance at a slow pace, as there is no soon-to-come catalyst that could trigger a bullish breakout. Support levels: 2,027.60 2,014.10 2,003.90   Resistance levels:  2,047.90 2,065.60 2,076.10

EUR/USD Current price: 1.0956 The Eurozone confirmed the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices at 2.4% YoY in November. Market participants remain optimistic ahead of inflation updates from major economies. EUR/USD is technically bullish, although the momentum is limited. The EUR/USD pair extends its modest weekly advance on Tuesday, as the US Dollar remains unattractive in the post-central banks' scenario, with investors looking for better options. Wall Street ended in positive territory on Monday, with the Nasdaq Composite reaching record highs amid persistent optimism. However, the absence of relevant macroeconomic data maintains most major pairs confined within familiar levels, with EUR/USD currently hovering around 1.0950. European Central Bank (ECB) officials delivered some comments. On the one hand, Andrea Enria, chairperson of the European Banking Authority, noted that there are still significant uncertainties and downside risks for Eurozone banks. On the other hand,  Governing Council member Gediminas Simkus said rate cut expectations are too optimistic, adding investors may have gotten ahead of themselves. Finally, Governing Council member and Bank of France President  Francois Villeroy de Galhau stated the central bank will not raise interest anymore. The comments did not impact the Euro, as they put nothing new on the table. Meanwhile, the EU released the final estimate of the November Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), confirming the annual gauge at 2.4%. On a monthly basis, the HICP was down 0.6%. The United States (US) session will bring November Building Permits and Housing Starts. Additionally, Canada will publish the November Consumer Price Index (CPI), the first of a row of inflation updates ending Friday with the US Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index. EUR/USD short-term technical outlook The EUR/USD pair is biased higher, according to technical readings in the daily chart, as the pair extends its recovery above all its moving averages. The 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA), however, lacks directional strength and stands a few pips below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the 1.0447/1.1016 rally at 1.0883. In the meantime, technical indicators keep heading north, with the Momentum indicator currently standing at neutral levels and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator hovering around 59. In the near term, and according to the 4-hour chart, EUR/USD is neutral-to-bullish. Technical indicators aim marginally higher but lack strength enough to confirm a continued advance. Still, the pair is advancing above a bullish 20 SMA, which develops well above the longer ones, in line with the bulls' dominance. The pair is poised to retest its November monthly high at 1.1016 and even extend its run beyond it. Support levels: 1.0915 1.0880 1.0845 Resistance levels: 1.0965 1.1000 1.1040

EUR/USD started to edge higher toward 1.0950 following Monday's subdued action. The near-term technical outlook points to a build-up of bullish momentum. Hawkish comments from ECB officials could continue to support the Euro. EUR/USD failed to make a decisive move in either direction to begin the week and closed virtually unchanged on Monday. Early Tuesday, the pair started to stretch higher toward 1.0950. In the absence of high-impact data releases, comments from central bank officials could impact the action. The US Dollar held resilient against its major rivals on Monday as the benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield recovered toward 4% in the first half of the day. As major equity indexes in the US edged higher following a mixed opening in Wall Street, however, the USD failed to gather recovery momentum and allowed EUR/USD to remain within a tight range.

Good Morning! Dollar Index has moved up well above 102 and could test 103-103.50 before coming off while Euro is bearish below 1.0965 for a fall towards 1.0850/1.08. EURJPY is headed towards its upper end of the 154-158 range while USDJPY is expected to fall on testing 144/145. Aussie can rise towards 0.68 but Pound may dip within the 1.2550-1.28 region. USDCNY needs to break past 7.15/16 to maintain its bullishness, else would be vulnerable to see the lower levels of 7.12-7.10 soon. USDRUB could test 91 soon. USDINR tested 82.90 before rising back. There could be some chances of a decline from 83.15/20 again. EURINR is bearish while below 91. The US Treasury yields have inched up slightly but are unlikely to sustain. We expect the yields to see more fall in the coming days. The German yields have bounced back well from their support. If this sustains further rise is possible this week. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI remained lower but stable. Outlook is bearish to see more fall from here. Dow Jones and DAX outlook is bullish while above the support 37000-36900 and 16600-16500 respectively. Nifty remain bullish for a test of its immediate resistance. Shanghai is attempting to break below the support at 2925. Nikkei is bearish while below the resistance at 33000-33500. Crude prices have come down from levels below their key resistance and have scope to fall from here. Gold can be range bound for a while with a bearish view. Silver looks bearish while below 24.50. Copper can test its lower end of the range before a bounce back can happen. Natural Gas tested its key resistance as expected and has dipped from there. Visit KSHITIJ official site to download the full analysis

As we wind down to the close of 2023, the Federal Reserve (Fed), European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England (BOE) announced their rate policy decisions last week. As expected, all three have kept their respective benchmark rates unchanged. The central banks and market participants will now shift their attention from inflation pressures, pivoting to the timing and magnitude of interest rate cuts in 2024, as these global economies are in various stages of a slowdown. For this article, I have chosen to focus on the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of Japan (BOJ). With recent US November Unemployment figures, we saw an unexpected strengthening of employment and wages. Non-farm payrolls increased 199,000 last month, compared to 150,000, in the month of October. The unemployment rate fell to 3.7% from 3.9% and monthly wage growth rose more than expected. Additionally, last Tuesday, US CPI figures were released. November's consumer price index ticked up +0.1%, from October. Core CPI also moved higher on a monthly basis. Overall inflation is still declining, as 6-month annualized core inflation is now below 3% for the first time since the beginning of 2021. At Wednesday's FOMC announcement, Fed Chairman Powell and the committee outlined forecasts for a series of rate cuts in 2024. There were additional comments stating "inflation has eased over the past year but remains elevated" and "economic growth has slowed from the third quarter's strong pace". (Source: Bloomberg). These statements clearly are being interpreted by the investment community, as validation that Fed's rate hike policy is complete and a soft landing is imminent. We've seen this reflected with rallies in both the US equity and bond markets. The median average for the aggregate amount of rate cuts in 2024 is now expected to be 75 basis points, or 3-monthly 25 basis points cuts. The timing of them is the question, which certainly will be data dependent. Regarding the BOJ, the last month has shown increased volatility in Japanese Yen (JPY), with an overall decline in USDJPY based on expected rate cuts in the US in 2024. With the continued focus on the fate of the BOJ's negative rate policy, there have been recent statements that have seen JPY appreciate against the USD and subsequently give back some of those gains. Last week, BOJ Governor Ueda hinted that further policy tightening could be a possibility, suggesting an end to their negative rate policy. We witnessed USDJPY dip below 142.00 only to watch a reversal occur over the following days. By this Monday, we saw USDJPY recover to a high around 146.50, after BOJ officials stated they see little need to rush into scrapping their negative interest rate policy, as they have not seen enough evidence of wage growth, supporting inflation (Bloomberg). After the FOMC announcement, USDJPY trended lower again, and at Wednesday's NY close was trading at of 143.00. Thursday morning (11:00 AM EST, Dec 14th) USDJPY continued its decline and was trading in the range of 141.60-142.00.  The upcoming BOJ rate decision is set for tomorrow (Tuesday, Dec 19th). With the recent varying statements, the markets will be paying close attention to the language from their announcement to shed some light on the BOJ's future policy strategy. The graph below is a look at USDJPY over the past month, using market data points from TraditionData. It supports and illustrates the most recent economic announcements and quotes mentioned above. We're approaching the end of an historic year in global interest policy. The focus now will shift to project when the various global economies will begin their anticipated rate cut policies, in 2024. Get out the popcorn and be ready to watch next year's movie unfold! FX Volatility will be increasing! At TraditionData, we pride ourselves on our global footprint with local market expertise through our relationship with Tradition's experienced broking business. We offer extensive coverage across Dollar, Yen, GBP and Euro-based products covering, FX spot / forwards, interest rate derivatives and inflation markets. Get in touch to find out how our OTC market data products can power your business, trading and risk decisions. 

AUD/USD Current Price: 0.6703 US Dollar mixed, supported by a modest rebound in Treasury yields. RBA meeting minutes are to be released on Tuesday. The AUD/USD reached a fresh monthly high but failed to hold above 0.6730.  The AUD/USD hit a fresh four-month high on Monday at 0.6735, slightly above last week's highs, and then pulled back. The pair continues to trade around 0.6700 as the US Dollar remains weak; however, it is stabilizing as Federal Reserve (Fed) officials pushed back against easing expectations. On a quiet Monday, most currency pairs offered limited price action. AUD/USD moved sideways after being unable to break above 0.6730. After reaching the fresh high, it pulled back to the 0.6695 area amid a stronger US Dollar due to higher Treasury Yields. Nonetheless, the pair remains near recent multi-month lows. Market sentiment sees the Fed cutting interest rates in the first half of next year, but it is not being considered as a base case scenario by Fed officials. Until the market focus shifts back to activity data, the US Dollar could remain under pressure. The key report in the US this week will be on Friday with the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (Core PCE) which, if it shows further deceleration, could weigh on the US Dollar. Last week, labor market data from Australia surpassed expectations but did not boost the Aussie. On Tuesday, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will release the minutes of its latest meeting. However, no surprises are expected. It will be a quiet week in terms of economic data in Australia. AUD/USD short-term technical outlook The AUD/USD remains within a bullish channel, with strong support at the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and a dynamic support at the 0.6570 zone. A decline below this mentioned area would change the bias from bullish to neutral. If the pair gains momentum and rises sharply, it is expected to encounter sellers around the 0.6800 level, triggering a retreat.  On the 4-hour chart, technical indicators are showing signs of weakness. The MACD has turned bearish, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is moving south, and Momentum is also declining. However, as long as the price remains above 0.6690, the downside potential should be limited. Below that area, a further correction towards 0.6660 appears likely. On the other hand, consolidation above 0.6730 would suggest a potential move towards fresh cycle highs. Support levels: 0.6690 0.6660 0.6620 Resistance levels: 0.6735 0.6760 0.6795

The Bank of Japan has kept interest rates in negative territory since February 2016. Japanese inflation has stayed above the central bank's 2% goal for over a year and a half. USD/JPY corrective advance could extend beyond 145.00 with a dovish central bank. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) will announce its monetary policy decision early Tuesday, with market participants expecting no surprises from it. The central bank has kept its benchmark rate unchanged at -0.1% since early 2016 and will likely keep it that way once again. Additionally, the central bank established a  Yield Curve Control (YCC) policy, limiting the yield flotation on its 10-year government bond. Regarding the latter, the latest decision was to allow a 50 basis point (bps) band on either side of its 0% target. Policymakers are still waiting for more evidence that price pressures have reached healthier levels even though annual inflation has been above 2% for over a year and a half. At the same time, fears about the consequences of leaving the ultra-loose monetary policy held them back. Officials are paving the way for a rate hike when most major central banks would engage in rate cuts. Governor Kazuo Ueda recently noted that the accommodative monetary policy and the effects of economic stimulus measures are supporting the Japanese economy while adding policymakers will patiently continue monetary easing under YCC to support economic activity and the cycle of wage growth.  Additionally, BoJ Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino recently discussed the benefits of a rate hike. Such comments fueled speculation the central bank was preparing to act, but Governor Ueda quickly clarified that's not the case. At the time being, there are 15% odds a rate hike will be delivered in April. If something, the focus will revolve around a potential adjustment of the Yield Curve Control program and any relevant change in the wording of the statement. BoJ officials always express concerns about USD/JPY wild rides one way or the other, although the recent JPY appreciation brought some relief, as a weaker Japanese Yen means soaring import prices and a wider trade deficit. The recent downward correction makes it easy for BoJ's officials to avoid damaging the economy should they finally decide to drop the ultra-loose monetary policy.   USD/JPY possible scenarios The USD/JPY pair trades around the 143.00 level ahead of the announcement, with the Japanese Yen appreciating sharply even since bottoming against the US Dollar at 151.90 mid-November, just below the USD/JPY October 2020 record peak at 151.94. From a technical point of view, the daily chart for the USD/JPY pair shows that the risk skews to the downside, with the ongoing advance seemingly corrective. The pair is recovering above a mildly bullish 200 Simple Moving Average (SMA) but still far below a bearish 20 SMA, which extends its slide below the 100 SMA. Finally, technical indicators are correcting oversold readings, aiming higher within negative levels. An on-hold BoJ with a dovish communique, without hints of potential tightening, will likely push the pair north. An intermediate resistance level comes at 143.60 en route to the 144.40 region. Opposed, clearer clues on monetary policy adjustments could back the Japanese Yen. USD/JPY's immediate support level comes at 142.45, followed by the 141.80 price zone.  

XAU/USD Current price: 2,022.49 Canada, the United Kingdom and the United States will release inflation updates this week. US Treasury yields remain near recent multi-week lows, undermining demand for the US Dollar. XAU/USD is technically neutral, as investors remain away from safe-haven assets. Gold prices trade with a soft tone, although XAU/USD stands a few bucks above Friday's close at $2,018.19 a troy ounce. Demand for the US Dollar remained subdued amid softer government bond yields following the latest Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy decision. The central bank pretty much confirmed the end of monetary tightening by holding fire for a third consecutive meeting while beginning to pivot towards rate cuts. As a result, US Treasury yields retreated sharply, with the 10-year note offering as low as 3.92% after a record peak of 4.99% in October. At the time being, the yield on the 10-year bond stands at 3.95%, adding barely 2 basis points (bps) on the day, hardly enough to underpin the US Dollar. Meanwhile, Wall Street shrugged off the sour tone of its overseas counterparts, and the three major indexes trade in the green, further limiting demand for the safe-haven Greenback. The ruling optimism, however, also undermines demand for the bright metal, maintaining XAU/USD in a tight range. As financial markets head into winter holidays, some relevant data remains to watch out for. Throughout the upcoming days, the United Kingdom and Canada will release inflation updates, while the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will announce its decision on monetary policy. Finally on Friday, the United States (US) will publish the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Fed's favorite inflation gauge. The PCE Price Index is expected to have increased by 3.3% YoY in November, down from 3.5% in the previous month. XAU/USD short-term technical outlook The daily chart for XAU/USD offers a neutral-to-bullish stance. The pair trades just above a bullish 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA), which advances well above the longer ones. Technical indicators, on the contrary, turned marginally lower within neutral levels, reflecting the absence of buying interest. Gold is neutral in the 4-hour chart. XAU/USD is stuck around its 20 and 100 SMAs, with the shorter one advancing but the longer one holding pat. The Momentum indicator heads south below its 100 line, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator rotated lower, currently standing at around 52, not enough to confirm a leg lower. Support levels:  2,014.10 2,003.90 1,991.45 Resistance levels: 2,035.40 2,047.90 2,065.60

EUR/USD Current price: 1.0918 The German IFO survey showed Business Climate worsened in December. ECB and Fed policymakers working on the "higher for longer" case. EUR/USD holds above 1.0900 with bulls on pause but retaining control. The EUR/USD pair hovers in a tight range around the 1.0900 figure on Monday,  with the US Dollar trading mixed across the board as investors try to digest the latest central banks' announcements. The Federal Reserve (Fed) and the European Central Bank (ECB) decided to keep interest rates on hold in their last meetings of 2023, holding their fire for the third consecutive meeting, somehow confirming the end of monetary tightening without explicitly saying so. The outlooks and the accompanying statements, however, differed, as risk to inflation and growth seem higher in the Eurozone. Still, market players welcomed the decisions with increased risk appetite, maintaining the USD on the back foot despite the United States (US) encouraging macroeconomic data. As the new week starts, fresh comments from policymakers hit the wires. On the one hand, ECB Governing Council member Peter Kazimir said that the mistake of premature easing would be more significant than the risk of staying tight for too long. On the other hand, Fed Bank of Cleveland President Loretta Mester declared that the next phase is about how long they need monetary policy to remain restrictive, not when to cut rates. Data-wise, Germany published the December IFO survey on Business Climate, which resulted in worse than anticipated. The headline reading contracted from 87.2 in November to 86.4, while Expectations shrank to 84.3. Finally, the assessment of the current situation printed at 88.5, down from 89.4 in the previous month. The US macroeconomic calendar has nothing relevant to offer today. EUR/USD short-term technical outlook The EUR/USD pair posts modest gains, holding at the lower end of Friday's range. The daily chart shows it holds above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the 1.0447/1.1016 rally at 1.0883. At the same time, the pair holds above all its moving averages, with the 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) directionless above the longer ones and a few pips below the Fibonacci support level. Finally, the Momentum indicator heads marginally lower below its 100 level, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator ticks north at around 56, failing to provide clear directional clues. The 4-hour chart offers a neutral-to-bullish stance. EUR/USD is meeting buyers around a bullish 20 SMA, currently at around 1.0905. Technical indicators, however, lack directional strength but remain within positive levels, suggesting bulls hold the grip. The case for a downward extension should increase if the pair slides through the aforementioned Fibonacci support. Support levels: 1.0905 1.0880 1.0845 Resistance levels: 1.10930 1.0965 1.1000

EUR/USD regained its traction after closing in negative territory on Friday. The pair's near-term technical outlook suggests that the bullish bias stays intact. Euro could target 1.1000 once it clears 1.0950. EUR/USD closed in negative territory on Friday but still gained more than 1% in the previous week. Following a quiet Asian session on Monday, the pair regained its traction and rose toward 1.0950. Hawkish comments from New York Federal Reserve (Fed) President helped the US Dollar hold its ground ahead of the weekend and caused EUR/USD to erase a small portion of its weekly gains. Williams said that they were not currently discussing rate cuts and argued that the market may be overreacting. In the meantime, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said over the weekend that he did not rule out the possibility of a rate cut at the policy meeting in March and made it difficult for the USD to preserve its strength to start the new week. On the other hand, Reuters reported that the European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers were unlikely to consider a policy pivot before March. Citing seven sources familiar with the matter, the news outlet said that officials thought that it would be difficult to cut key rates before June.

The Federal Reserve's (Fed) rate cut talk is getting chaotic and frankly, hard to follow. After the Fed signaled a possible end to its monetary policy tightening campaign and the European policymakers refused to adhere, some Fed members including John Williams and Raphael Bostic pushed back the Fed cut expectations. But anyway, investors could give the Fed doves the benefit of the doubt until Friday's PCE data. The PCE, the Fed's favourite gauge of inflation, is expected to show a further decline in both headline and core inflation. Elsewhere, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will announce the year's final policy verdict on Tuesday. The BoJ Governor Ueda's comments, two weeks ago, that the BoJ's policy would be hard to maintain from the year end had triggered expectations that the BoJ will finally say goodbye to negative rates. There is nothing more than a slim probability for the BoJ to exit negative rates this week, but investors are eager to hear further details about how and when the BoJ will leave the negative rate territory. Concrete details regarding the BoJ's policy plans and/or changes in BoJ's inflation outlook could cause swift moves in yen markets, which became very volatile since Ueda hinted that something is cooking in his kitchen.