Morning briefing: Euro could rise towards 1.1000 before pausing

Good Morning!

The Dollar Index is holding below 102.72 and could dip to 102 or slightly lower before resuming a rise towards 103. Euro has bounced well from 1.09 and could rise towards 1.10 before pausing. EURJPY and USDJPY are bullish to 160 and 146 respectively. USDCNY rose above 7.17 but has dipped back from there. Unless it sustains rise past 7.17, it looks bearish for a fall back to 7.14/12. Aussie is near its support of 0.67 from where a bounce towards 0.675-0.68 is expected. Pound continues to trade within 1.26-1.28 region. USDRUB has declined from resistance at 92.60 and could now fall back towards 90-89. The range of 83.35-83.20/15 could hold in USDINR for now. EURINR has held the support at 90.80 and risen back. It could see a further rise towards 91.5 before possibly pausing. Important data releases to watch today are US NFP data and the US Avg Hourly Earnings.

The US Treasury yields have risen back sharply. A break above their immediate resistances can see an extended corrective rise going forward. The US NFP and the Unemployment data release today is important to watch. The German yields are moving up towards their resistances in line with our expectation. The yields can resume their downtrend after testing the resistance. The 10Yr GoI is coming close to its resistance from where we expect it to see a fresh leg of fall. The 5Yr GoI on the other hand continues to remain mixed and stable within the narrow range.

Dow Jones keeps alive the chances of seeing a fall on the downside first before a fresh leg of rally happens again. DAX is in a wait and watch situation. Nifty has bounced back but needs a strong rise above 21700 to avoid the danger of falling below 21500 and to clear the path towards its resistance. Nikkei is expected to trade sideways within 32500-34000 with a bullish view. Shanghai appears range bound.

Crude prices look mixed and are likely to be ranged for a while. Gold sustains higher above its key support and is expected to move further in the near term. Silver has bounced back but the support turned resistance might cap the upside. Copper remains subdued and is vulnerable while below the resistance at 3.88-3.90. Natural Gas has dipped slightly but overall outlook is bullish for the near term. Today key focus is on the US NFP data which could bring in some volatility for commodity market.

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