Markets continue to question rate pathway after recent inflation data

• Quiet start, but Nvidia earnings provide highlight of the week ahead.

• UK Rightmove HPI gains 0.9% in February.

• Markets continue to question rate pathway after recent inflation data.

European markets have stumbled into a new week, with the habitual record highs set for the likes of the DAX and CAC holding off for the time being. Today brings a relatively quiet session for global markets, with national holidays in the US and Canada coming alongside a lack of any notable US earnings or economic data. Nonetheless, today’s slow start belies the excitement ahead as AI posterchild Nvidia gear up to provide one of the most hotly anticipated reports of the quarter on Wednesday. Coming off the back of particularly impressive earnings and performance from Arm Holdings, bulls will hope that Nvidia can post numbers that continue to justify the lofty valuations that come with a stock that has gained 47% since the start of the year.

The UK housing market came back into focus this morning, with the Rightmove House Price Index gaining another 0.9% in February. Coming off the back of a year that saw growing concerns that rising borrowing costs would result in a collapse within house prices, the strength seen over recent months help lift expectations that 2024 will bring higher transactions and valuations. With strong wage growth lifting average earnings, the housing market looks primed for a potential boost once the Bank of England normalise interest rates over the course of the year.

Coming off the back of a week that was dominated by inflation data from the US and UK, market expectations around the monetary pathway for both the BoE and FOMC remains uncertain. Rising yields have highlighted the pushback after the initial expectations of a whopping seven rate cuts from the FOMC this year. Instead, it looks like the ECB and BoE could lead the way this year, with European disinflation set to ramp up over the coming months.