EUR/USD Forecast: Euro holds above 1.0800 ahead of key US data

• EUR/USD staged a modest rebound after testing 1.0800 earlier in the day.
• 1.0820 aligns as a key pivot level for the pair.
• Eyes on US ISM Services PMI and JOLTS Job Openings data.

After falling toward 1.0800 in the early European session on Tuesday, EUR/USD regained its traction and rose above 1.0820, erasing its daily losses in the process. The near-term technical outlook is yet to point to a build-up of bullish momentum as markets await key data releases from the US.

Following Monday’s sharp decline, EUR/USD started the day on the back foot. With the Euro Stoxx 50 Index turning positive on the day, however, the pair managed to find a foothold. Meanwhile, the benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield went into a consolidation phase above 4.2% after rising sharply on Monday, making it difficult for the US Dollar (USD) to preserve its strength.

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the JOLTS Job Openings data on Tuesday, which is expected to edge lower to 9.3 million in October from 9.55 million in September. If the number of job openings fall below 9 million and point to loosening conditions in the labor market, the USD could come under bearish pressure in the American session.

The US economic docket will also offer the ISM Services PMI survey for November. The headline PMI is forecast to rise modestly to 52 from 51.8. In case this reading arrives below 50 and shows a contraction in the service sector’s business activity, EUR/USD could extend its rebound.

Market participants will also keep a close eye on the performance of Wall Street’s main indexes. As of writing, US stock index futures were down between 0.2% and 0.55%. A bearish opening in US stocks could provide support to the USD.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

The 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the Fibonacci 38.2% retracement level of the latest uptrend form a key pivot point for EUR/USD at 1.0820. In case the pair stabilizes above that level, 1.0860 (20-period SMA) could be seen as first resistance ahead of 1.0900 (Fibonacci 23.6% retracement, 100-period SMA).

If EUR/USD drops below 1.0820 and confirms that level as resistance, 1.0800 (psychological level) could be seen as interim support before 1.0760-1.0770 area (Fibonacci 50% retracement, 200-period SMA on the 4-hour chart).