Morning briefing: Euro needs sustain above 1.08, else would be vulnerable to see 1.07-1.06

Dollar Index needs to hold below 104 to fall towards 102 while Euro needs sustain above 1.08, else would be vulnerable to see 1.07-1.06. EURJPY has risen from 158.72 and could rise towards 160 before again declining back towards 158. Dollar Yen has sustained well above 146 can rise towards 148-150 in the near term. USDCNY continues to trade between 7.12-7.15/16. Aussie could fall towards 0.65 or lower while the resistance at 0.67 holds. Pound can be ranged below 1.27 for a while. USDRUB is rising as expected and is likely to test 92-94 on the upside. EURINR is falling sharply but could face some support at 90. USDINR could be ranged within 83.25-83.40.

The US Treasury yields have bounced slightly. A break below their crucial supports if seen can extend bearish bias. The German yields continue to move down in line with our expectation. They have room to fall more in the coming sessions. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI have dipped yesterday and could trade within a narrow range for sometime before breaking higher eventually.

Dow Jones lacks strength but outlook remains bullish while above the support at 36000-35800. DAX is heading up towards the key resistance as expected. Need to see if it breaks higher or falls back from there. Nifty has surged above 20500 and may look to rise further from here. Nikkei has broken below its sideways range and looks vulnerable to fall further while below 33000. Shanghai remains bearish for the near term.

Crude prices have declined towards their key support from where a possible bounce back can be seen. Gold, Silver and Natural gas remains vulnerable for the near term. Copper looks bearish to break below its immediate support at 3.80 and fall further.

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